Secular Trends Portfolio Update, Predictions Review

With two months in the books and my Blog portfolio up 37% (this does not include trades I made on CRUS and RES that netted 20%, and small losses in say like the BGZ -2.5%), since I began writing I thought its time to re-evaluate my positions and take a look at the predictions I made for 2011.

So what was my strategy, it was basically a play on our debt, weakening of the dollar, inflation run wild, increasing money supply and its consequences.

My theory was and still is that the major debt holders China, Japan, and UK will start dumping our bonds and I said that I would short the long bond using TBT.

Long Bond ETF (Short)

13 Percent gain, but don't forget this will take years to play out and one can sit back and enjoy this ride, our policies are not going to change, folks in Washington can't help but spend money. If the money printing stops and we have substantial budget cuts and they tell us, ladies and gentleman were gonna have a couple of really bad years and we'll fix this thing then the trade is off, its that simple.

Next I spoke about weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Since the start of this blog the dollar is down 2% against major world currencies, and if you think two percent isn't alot in currency trade its huge. I don't know jack about currency trading, but do your own homework you'll know what I'm talking about.
Just look at dollar ETF since they announced QE last summer and the S&P took off.

This is one scary chart, God help us!

Inflation run wild: Metals, Energy, Food, Ag all are sky rocketing, Uncle Ben says ex; food and energy there is no inflation. Its so funny, ex food, (isn't that what  these riots are about, people are starving). Imagine if food and energy was no longer pegged to the dollar and you could buy it Rubles etc, then there would be no ex-food and energy in those statements and we'd be out in the streets. And I know we don't really care about "those" people, not really, its just cause of the oil! 

Regarding commodity prices, I refer you to just todays headlines on Bloomberg (commodities section). Just look at todays headlines!

Energy Large Caps

Since I started writing this blog XLE is up 32%, MOO Ag ETF is up 12%, DBA  soft commodities 18%, URA, uranium miners 27%, URZ 108% and UEC 58%, and CCJ up 32%. In case you think you missed something and its too late, I would have to re-think that. Just look at what is bringing us here to this point where oil is over a hundred. We are right at pre-crisis awareness (dollar/debt) levels. The shit hasn't hit that fan yet. The uranium miners have pulled back substantially and its a good time to step in. I'd use a stop 5-8 percent below the 50dma to minimize loss on a new entry.

Now on to the metals and miners, GDXJ is up 12.5%, and GLD is up a 6.25% since 10/29/10. Silver ETF SLVand Silver miners ETF SIL, are up 48 and 41% respectively. 

If you don't have any silver yet please read this interview!
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MediaCoverage/2010/globe.pdf

Japanese large cap ETF

On January 3rd I spoke of some predictions for the coming year. 

1. More QE talk: Bernanke hinted it on 60minutes and in Bloomberg Interview (QE3): Check!

2. Commodity Inflation: Check! see coco, sugar, silver, gold, cotton, oil, copper etc etc

3. 20 Year Bear market in Japan will end. Check! So far so good!  

4. Not here in the US but riots in Middle East, Africa and China over food inflation.

5. Still no talk about alternative energy as oil over 100
6. Alternative Energy Uranium Play, Check!

we'll see about the rest as the year plays out