Thursday, October 27, 2011

European debt meeting

Futures are screaming higher, S&P's are up 28 points on top of a 12 point gain on reversal yesterday. Lets see if the big boys fade this open. We have GDP at 830am along with other reports.

If you havent already heard the outcome of the meeting here is a link



“There was no way that this agreement was ever going to include everything that dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s, but what they did do is show a sense of unity and determination in recognizing what needed to be done,” said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin in London.

“I don’t think they [euro-zone leaders] are floundering any more,” he said. ”There was discord, conflict and tension [before]. All of that energy now seems to be far more productively focused on these three or four points they have agreed.”

Equity markets in Asia and Europe soared Thursday on news of the deal. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index XX:SXXP +3.48% rose 3%, while France’s CAC-40 indexFR:PX1 +5.51% rallied 4.8%.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

When to buy back

This morning we had a gap up which was rejected swiftly at the upper trendline and I think we are headed to the lower end of the range. If the news out europe on the positive side is baked into this current move up, but bad news is not and we could get a freefall until just before the G20. This is a scary environment to be trading to say the least,

PM Update

What in the world is going on? Gold up almost 3% and Silver up 5% what happened to the deflation scenario? Right now big bets are being made by the commercial banks that a lot of printing is going to take place, I refer you to the COT reports previously posted. Technically both PM's are starting to look healthier, gold looks a lot better than Silver.

 Gold is above the 150 and 200dma, MACD is crossing over and this morning gold is up 20 bucks so it should break above the resistance trendline, next hurdle will be getting over the 50dma and that should be no problem if we get a significant bailout from Europe.

 The Silver daily chart is a mess, the hourly looks a lot better, yesterday it broke above its resistance line and will most likely fill that gap this week. Again anyone who has been long Silver right now has been extremly disappointed since May first. We all know the fundamentals (debt, inflation etc) but we have had to face the big banks and the margin hikes etc, we all know 16:1 gold to Silver ratio and based on that Silver should be over a hundred. Right now the sentiment in Silver is so poor that any good news regarding QE will cause it to gap up quickly, we have large specs who are usually wrong way too short as are the small specs and the Commercials are the least short they have ever been this sets up for a big move in Silver. So even if this chart looks ugly, we have a nice set up in the coming days or weeks.

Finally, it looks like the EUR is signalling the euro-zone is safe for now, euro looks like its going to breakout and the dollar chart looks weak, will probably be 74.90 by Christmas. I think this recent stock market rally was based on optimism the Fed will join in with European central banks and they will ease together and the market has gotten ahead of itself, the S&P futures are up 7 points right now, but we are overbought (Mc O at highest point in chart) and market needs a little break. We should get a pull back to the 50dma, that would be healthy.


Tuesday, October 25, 2011

The Problem & The Solution: Part 1 of Rant

What needs to happen is we should say F-OFF to the banks and let them all go under. They caused this problem let them suffer, why should the average person suffer while they pay each other millions in xmas bonuses after they get bailout money. That should happen but IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN, why? because politicians don't have the balls cause they get their campaign money from wall street and a lot of them are former wall streeters or fund managers. So wishful thinking but you would hope that these guys (in washington) would lear that you just can't throw money at this problem they have tied and tried TARP, QE1 and QE2 IT DOES NOT WORK, PERIOD! Cut the cancer out, its the only way to a cure.

Before you fix a problem you need to know what it is that is causing the problem, you can't treat symptoms (throw money at it), at least that's what I learned in med school. So you take the analogy of say a person has a cough, you can't just give a person cough drops or syrup and solve their problem if say the cough is caused by Pneumonia or Cancer, right? At this time the politicians do not understand the cause of this crisis and they just want to give the economy syrup and expect us to get better.


I think these guys all need to go for a three day seminar and learn what the f#$k the problem is. The problem is derivatives (like aggressive cancer cells), derivatives just need just go away, and just like they print all this money  (magic), if they just POOF made them go away (write them off), the world will not end. All this bullshit about creating more debt to service current debt, austerity measures, create inflation and make the ordinary citizen the hard working saver bear the brunt of the measures while the rich keep getting richer.

The banks created all this debt, in cahoots with Wall Street in the absence of regulation or supervision (where were our elected officials, where was the SEC) greedy banksters encouraged the proliferation of debt at all levels of society - personal, corporate and state in order to maximise their control and power and in order to drain every last penny from the honest hard working people of not only this country but in the world. The problem is that they got too greedy, salaries and bonuses for investment houses have gone up astronomically in the 90's to now no other profession has risen to the heights of wall steeters and no one has created more loss to society (in recent history) than the banksters, they are worse than the drug cartels. The government wants to create more jobs, here is an idea why don't they create the FBBI or BEA (Federal Bureau of Bankster Investigation or Bankster Enforcement Agency).

be back later with part 2.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Disaster Averted (for now)

Last Wed I sent out emails and text messages warning people of a possible collapse of the European banking system as early as this Monday. Looks like that is NOT going to happen. The Asian markets have rallied (SPX futures up 6) on some of their own numbers but the main reason is that they are confident in European money printing to be sufficient to stave of a full blown crisis. But you must remember back in March they had averted a crisis and then Greece was given a second bailout not too long ago and we were lead to believe that there will be no need for more bailouts. And now we are hearing the same thing. However this time things are quite a bit different. Take a look at the charts below.
August through to the early parts of October the EUR slid, take a look at the Commercial short positions at that time and compare them to the current situation. The large commercial banks are making huge bets as of last Friday that EU is going to be okay and the Gold and Silver COT are indicating that bailout (or QE) money supply whatever you'd like to call is coming. Its now going to be a matter of size.

Looking a the red bars on the MACD histogram and right at moderate support one would think that the dollar should bounce here but the commercials are betting the other way and you combine that with bearish dollar short (large commercial position) you have a chance for stocks, gold and silver to take off.

So for now it looks like we are safe.
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Most Asian equity markets gained sharply on Monday after European leaders indicated progress on resolving the euro-zone debt crisis and as data pointed to an improvement in Chinese manufacturing.




Decision day is Wed.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-climbs-after-europe-flags-debt-progress-2011-10-23



Sunday, October 23, 2011

U.S. Stock Futures Drop as European Leaders Rule Out Using ECB for Rescue

Well as was the concern that I voiced last week, the ECB has bailed on the bailout. The futures are only down 6 right now but by morning the situation should worsen as traders get to their desks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-23/u-s-stock-futures-drop-as-european-leaders-rule-out-using-ecb-for-rescue.html