Dollar

Looks like the comments on the 4th by The Bernanke are signaling more easing, some of the things he said sound fairly delusional, like blaming Europe for why QE isnt working and stating there is no inflation, sounds to me like he is making a case for stimulus. He already has rates held at zero till 2013.

If the dollar can get below the 20dma, this will be quite bullish for stocks and metals, looks like the MACD line is about to cross and the green zone in the histogram is almost gone red. The histogram was receding despite price increase and that is bearish in itself for the UUP.

Why Silver Has Bottomed

1. Massive sell off caused by margin calls on leveraged specs down 45% in a couple of days and third day          dragon fly doji reversal (hammer). Volume climaxed and abated.
2. MACD greatly oversold even more than May low, cant find a lower print.
3. RSI reversal from oversold to positive prior to significant price change
4. Sentiment among specs and funds at extreme low as per COT report
5. Lowest reading of commercial shorts in ten years
6. Bullish reversal day for copper and oil as well as the HUI
7. This is still a secular bull market, the long term trend line has not been broken, that level is 24.

On a final note I strongly believe that fundamentals are what matter most in this game and ultimately if all you are doing is stacking metal you are happy these guys (The Morgue et al ) provide you with a discount by the usual trickery.

Where the whining starts is when you are buying paper like I am and then you cant stand these fucking people cause they rip your account apart. Well, when i decided to write again, I thought NO MORE complaining about the Cartels. They wanna play games why don't i just play along with them and stop fighting them, like they say dont fight the FED, well don't fight the Morgue (with paper that is) Keep buying metals on huge discount days and protect paper with puts and bear ETFs, that sounds wonderful doesn't it but what happens to you paper when they start shorting when Hong Kong opens and you are a sleep an now your calls are down 40% like what happened in may when silver went down 6 dollars in like an hour or when they raise margins at 8pm on a Friday, like that's fair? But we are playing on their home field and their rules (and their officials bought and paid for). Accept and move on!

The bullion banks are not charitable organizations they're job is to make money and they do it by taking yours. Don't give it to them. Buy physical and if you buy paper you are gambling. Play with what can afford to lose for the month, and if and when you have a profit don't be greedy, take some off and wait for the next raid.

Head in the sand

ECB doesnt cut rates as Jean Claude Trichet gives the finger to the markets on the way out (good freaking riddance, ego maniac!). Now coming in from the bull pen Super Mario, lets see if he has the balls to stand up to the Germans. Personally I don't care, because I don't know what the solution to this mess is and I am pretty damn sure no one else does either.

And the futures plunged on the news they were up 12 on the S&P, Gold and silver also gave up almost half of the gains from this morning there was also news that BOE injects 75 billion pounds into the system.  Again stocks need their medicine (as do gold and silver), without it we do not get over 1200.

Actually there are enough debt issues and bailouts and defaults to give the PM's a bid but they aren't going to go up because of the central bank assault on the metals as they devalue their currencies.

They will keep the prices down and orchestrate massive scares so the general public gets taken out and the rich will pick up cheap metal over time. That is the endgame. Read that article i posted from Jesse's site, the guy is brilliant.

This Guy Is Brilliant: Must Read

"The wealthy, not only by private fraud but also by common laws, do every day pluck and snatch away from the people some part of their daily living. Therefore, when I consider and weigh in my mind these commonwealths which nowadays do flourish, I perceive nothing but a certain conspiracy of rich men in procuring their own commodities under the name and authority of the commonwealth.

They invent and devise all means and crafts, first how to keep safely without fear of losing that which they have unjustly gathered together, and next how to hire and abuse the work and labor of the people for as little money and effort as possible."

Thomas More, Utopia

No chart updates tonight as I have out of pocket on personal business most of the day.

Here is a simple description of what is driving the markets. It is basically a counter party risk situation involving the biggest banks in the Western financial system.

Read More

The Dollar

 What I am finding in the print today is that there is a huge amount of short interest in the USD by commercial banks and they are piling into the EUR. The chart above shows the recent breakdown on the intraday chart. This would suggest the banks are betting on more QE and that the eurozone will survive. All of this is bullish for stocks and commodities.

I find the long term chart of the USD very interesting in that if we look at the current SPX and back before the fall of Lehman the dollar staged a dramatic rise as if it or some people knew what was coming. Now we are seeing a similar rise again in the fall three years later, what does it all mean. You and I both know that the Fed is in league with the Banks, so this time the fed is prepared and the banks are positioning themselves.
I think the fed may be getting ready to devalue the dollar by 10%. We are going to all wake up one morning feeling a bit lighter unless we have been stacking during pullbacks.

Globally central banks are working together to short gold and silver and devalue their currencies, the endgame is to transfer their paper wealth into gold and silver but not yield their power. So even if you are ahead of the game they will shake the little guy out and take his metal for pennies of what its worth. Why do you think Silver isn't over a hundred right now while gold is over 1600 (16:1 ratio).

Whatever, its taken me some time but i'm starting to understand this game.

Getting back in to the game

I know I said I wasn't going to write but I changed my mind. I figure there are so many PM sites that are just cheerleaders for PM's and I was getting to be one of them, so I had to re-think what my purpose in writing was.

Firstly, we all know about the banksters, the cartel, the evil empire, Blythe the witch! I was wondering about the audacity of us bloggers and the PM sheep (at times myself included) to get caught up in fighting a fight we have no chance of winning. We are in a war of attrition and these guys have unlimited funds, they have an uncle we don't have (Ben). They are too big to fail and they can take all the risks (I know I can't).

So here is the plan. I don't want to call them names and cry about manipulation and  what so on and so forth. We all know this already so time to move on. I figure you cant beat em join em. What I mean is, short the metals along with them based on the COT reports and other factors and buy when they are less short (why are they never long, no one ever asks that), I know the info comes in a bit late and we may miss a day here or there but I won't get hammered.

I lost a ton on this latest bear raid but a friend just said why don't you just get out and I did sell 66% of my paper silver the day of twist and the rest the following day and I bought back 1/3 on the big hammer print day at 28. Just made another buy this morning. 10% Increase paper Silver.

Current market condition (Stocks and Metals)

Many of the markets especially silver and gold are at extreme oversold level and the sentiment is extremely bearish, I will put up charts in a few. There is a huge position on short USD and long EUR by commercial banks and this would imply that they are expecting the euro to survive by way of bailouts and for money printing to resume first in Europe and then the US. Remember these guys are in tight with the government just look around the govt is full of former wall street guys. If you want to make money follow the commercial banks. They are always accumulating early before any announcement, they can't do it too fast cause its too much money and they are playing poker and don't want to give up their hand.

Global meltdown is under way, Ben did the twist and shake (no QE), monetary system that was on crack is now simply in DT's (at least the financials that are not too big to fail). There are rumors that MS will go under as well as BAC (Uncle Warren, not worried) and a number of French and other small european banks will go under and they are puking everything up including Gold. Tremors and shaking and blood pressure rising from stress no doubt and fear thus metals come out of the weaker players (trying to survive).

ITS A KINDA MAGIC (how do you think we held 1100) So mysterious, not really, Ben is no dummy from morning to last hour of trade people loaded up on the short side thinking were headed to at least 1050 or even 900 (Yikes) and then boom Jamie, Loyd and the rest of you bozos here is a few billion we can't let this market go down and presto chango under the cover of the Belgian bank bailout the market goes up 40 points in a flash! 

On a positive note the rydex money market fund inflows are going nuts and the $TYH or Treasury yield is at or near the 2009 March bottom, what ever it is we are close or getting close. If you go long without QE at your back youre nuts, if you wanna catch this falling knife you are gutsy and probably early. We will never get above 1200 on the SPX with out QE.

Back to metals according to the September 30th COT report majority of the speculative longs are gone. The commercials are at lowest short levels since 08 Lehman meltdown in terms of Gold and Silver, and so why do PM's keep going down, plain and simple lack of liquidity and deleveraging by banks especially European banks, the interesting thing is that stocks aren't as deeply oversold as the metals but the metals are going down and the stocks staged a late day huge short covering rally.

look at the MACD to the left fall of 08 when Lehman collapsed and the May crash and recent plunge, we have most likely bottomed, we are not going straight up which is great, there is backing and filling and great support in the physical market at 26 and 28.

Courtesy of clivemaund.com