STP Update

Silver is probably going to be in a trading range somewhere between 39.5-32.5 for a few weeks (at least) as traders will have to recover from the beating given by Blythe et al. 

Gold has held up remarkably better than Silver, but as you know it didn't go up as much as Silver. I would love to see it be the leader here, will support Silver from going down every day. 

Crude has sold off and eerily similar chart to Silver. Support at the 150dma.

Good place to add to DBA, keeping a stop 5% below the new buy

Dollar seeing strength due to all the problems in Europe, no above the 50dma this will bring in all the technicians and momentum guys should exacerbate commodity selling or dampen rise in the least. 

I am going to open a new position in URA on Monday, as you can see it right at the Fukushima disaster prices. Time to  buy, with stop 5% below.

Long term hold, not adding here, gotta just ride out the negativity. 

Good place to add to MOO, bottom end of range, keep a stop 5% below the buy price.

Blogger Back Online

You see the hammer print with a nice long spike and reversal yesterday, and we get a decent follow through today. We are still very over sold and I am encouraged by the RSI not taking a bigger dip. We have now successfully retested and i hope we can go sideways to up from here for a few weeks let the hot money go somewhere else for a while, build a base to climb from. Prediction 33-40 range 8-10 weeks and hope I am wrong to the upside.

Jeremy Grantham Goes Bearish: "Now Is The Time To Fight The Fed" And "Stocks Trading 40% Above Fair Value Are Badly Overpriced"

Part 2:Time To Be Serious (and probably too early) Once Again

Time to load up

So much for holding 37. The second I wrote that, we sold off hard, time to back up the truck. Were at 36.5, I think we'll close up over 37 tonight. 

Silver Update

We've had a couple of successful tests of 37. keep an eye on this level as its proving to be significant. If silver can hold 37 I think the downside test is over and we can start consolidating between 37 and 39. Maybe even take out the 50dma, would be nice, will follow up later. Keep Holding on, we'll make it through!!  

Mike Maloney Interview

Click to 12:56 mark to see Mike Maloney Interview with Max Keiser

INTERVIEW 

China "Aims To Have More Gold Than America"

THE CENTRAL BANKS of developing countries will Buy Gold at an increasing rate in coming years, with China being a leading player, according to a major industry figure.

Rob McEwen, founder and former head of Goldcorp, now the world's fifth largest Gold Mining company, believes central bank purchases could help push the price of gold to $2000 an ounce by the end of the year.

"China is out to have more gold than America, andRussia is aspiring to the same,"said McEwen, who is now chairman and CEO of junior miner US Gold. "When you have debt, you don't have a lot of flexibility. China wants to show its currency has more backing than the US."


Full article

About 1 in 7 in U.S. Receive Food Stamps~ WSJ

Growth in the food stamp program appeared to reach a plateau in February — with 14.3% of the population relying on the safety net program.

Click the image for a map of food stamp use by state.

The number of food stamp recipients was essentially flat in February, the most recent month available, with 44.2 million Americans receiving benefits, according a new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. (See a sortable breakdown of the data here.)

The food stamp program ballooned during the recession as workers lost their jobs or saw their hours and income reduced. The rise in recipients has begun to flatten in recent months, which may mean that as the economy is improving fewer Americans are seeking to join the program. Enrollment in the program is still high though, with 11.6% more people tapping benefits in February than the same month a year earlier.

Food stamp numbers aren’t seasonally adjusted though, meaning a variety of factors could influence the monthly tallies and the program could grow again in coming months.

full article 

S&P 500 Recap

support at 1340 (20dma should hold)

Yesterday's session began with a gap higher and spent the opening hour pushing higher without any significant pullbacks. But the morning high was on the chart right at the end of the first hour before the S&P went into a four hour period of tight range trading. The final ninety minutes of the session saw the indices rally six point and then give three points back just before the close.

For the S&P Index there were 434 components advancing and 40 components declining. On the NYSE 3,169 issues were traded with 2,485 advancing issues and 584 retreating issues, a ratio of 4.26 to one advancing. There were 241 new highs and 16 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 137 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 22 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 329.

Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 3.95 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.24 and the final tick was 761. The five day average of TRIN is 1.27 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.12. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.85% today while the SPX gained 0.8%.

87% of the S&P are above their five day moving average, 59.4% are above their 10 day average, 64.6% are above their 20 day moving average, 67.8% are above their 50 day moving average, and 85% are above their 200 day moving average.

So we are still moving to our target (1420-1440), breadth indicators are bullish as are net advancers/decliners. 

Fed Presidents Signal Record Stimulus Won’t Be Removed Soon

Two Federal Reserve regional bank presidents indicated that the central bank won’t remove record stimulus soon, saying the Fed is missing its goal for full employment and inflation isn’t a long-term risk.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and San Francisco’s John C. Williams followed the lead taken by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who signaled last week that policy makers will keep stimulus in place after ending large-scale bond purchases in June.

“Right now we’re pretty far away from our targets, and right now we’re keeping monetary policy accommodative,” Rosengren, 53, said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg News. “It’s very appropriate given how far we are from our targets.”

Bernanke and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee said last week that the economy, which has added an average of 149,000 jobs a month over the last six months, is recovering at a “moderate pace.” For interest rates to rise, “we’d have to see much more job growth than we’ve seen to date,” Rosengren said in the interview.

U.S. stocks fell yesterday and bonds climbed after private reports showed that companies added fewer workers than forecast in April and service industries expanded at the slowest pace in eight months. A Labor Department report tomorrow may show that the jobless rate was unchanged at 8.8 percent last month and 185,000 jobs were added to payrolls, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

(Full article)

I know this is an older post, but in case you are nervous about your Silver and need reinforcement!

"Inflation, what inflation"? The US Central Banking Cartel.

World Food Prices Rise to Near-Record High as Inflation Speeds Up, UN Says (Bloomberg)

The U.S. government is trying to steal $100’s of billions from China

Simple. The U.S. government is trying to steal $100’s of billions from China, and lying about who is the real “currency manipulator” is the only way that the U.S. government can steal from China.

China holds about $1 trillion in U.S. government debt. As the biggest deadbeat in the history of the world, the U.S. doesn’t want to pay China (nor any of the holders of its $14+ trillions in debt). So the U.S. plan to cheat China (and others) was to water-down its own currency much faster than China is diluting its own paper. This would (normally) cause the U.S. dollar to plummet versus China’s own currency. Since all of the money that the U.S. owes China isdenominated in U.S. dollars, by driving down the dollar versus the renminbi this would mean that the dollars that the U.S. government would use to repay China would/should be worth much, much less than the dollars the U.S. borrowed from China.

What it all boils-down to is that the U.S. is accusing China of “manipulating” its currency simply because China has refused to let the U.S. steal from it – by keeping the exchange rate relatively constant between the two currencies.

Not one word of this analysis is new. Not one word of this analysis is possibly open to debate. And not one word of this analysis ever appears in the U.S. mainstream media. Obviously planning to steal $100’s of billions is serious business – and requires everymember of the U.S. propaganda-machine to sing from the same song-sheet.

The U.S. government is a collection of liars, thieves, and hypocrites. The U.S. mainstream media is a group of shameless sycophants who parrot those lies with complete fidelity. However, far from demonstrating even one iota of contrition, all that the U.S. government ever does is ratchet-up its level of lying and hypocrisy.

FULL ARTICLE 

Run for your life!

The weak holders are dropping Silver and running to the hills!

Hey got to keep my sense of humor, no despair here!

Justice Department Sues Deutsche Bank

The U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit Tuesday accusing Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) of "reckless lending practices" when recommending loans to be insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).

The suit seeks damages of more than $1 billion.

Deutsche Bank and its subsidiary, MortgageIT, broke U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) rules for establishing that borrowers had the income and credit histories that would ensure repayment of the loans, according to the Justice Department's complaint.

"As alleged, MortgageIT and Deutsche Bank ignored every type of red flag and breached every duty of due diligence before underwriting thousands of federally insured mortgages," U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara told United Press International. "Ultimately, prudence was trumped by profit, and good faith took a back seat to good fees. This is exactly the kind of misconduct that our Civil Frauds Unit was created to combat."




Deutsche Bank naturally objected to the allegations.

"We believe the claims against MortgageIT and Deutsche Bank are unreasonable and unfair"Renee Calabro, a spokeswoman for the Frankfurt-based company, told Bloomberg News. "Close to 90% of the activity covered by the DOJ allegations happened prior to Deutsche Bank's acquisition of MortgageIT."

HUD general counsel Helen Kanovsky told The New York Times that MortgageIT had ignored FHA warnings for years, telling the government all along it was dealing with the problems, "all of which turned out to be not true."

In fact, MortgageIT actually hired a consultant in 2004 to examine its loan procedures. According to the government's complaint, every audit report the consultant sent ended up "unopened and unread" in a closet.

MortgageIT, which Deutsche Bank bought in 2007, approved FHA insurance for more than 39,000 loans worth more than $5 billion between 1999 and 2009.

Almost a third of the loans have defaulted, forcing HUD to pay out $386 million. Claims not yet paid amount to $880 million.

Worse, the Deutsche Bank loans are just a fraction of the soured mortgages for which the FHA is responsible. The portion of loans insured by the FHA has risen from 5% in 2005 to about one-third. With approximately 25% of the loans made in 2007 and 2008 expected to go bad, payouts could soar.

And that could pressure the FHA's reserves, which fell from $21 billion in 2007 to $4.7 billion as of September of last year. If it exhausts those reserves, the FHA would need to tap into taxpayer money for the first time in its history.

The lawsuit against Deutsche Bank is the most noteworthy case to be brought by Bharara's unit thus far. The action immediately sparked speculation that other big banks responsible for passing bad loans to the FHA during the housing bubble could be in the Justice Department's crosshairs - a notion HUD officials did not dispel.

(LINK)

USD index headed to 73

I mentioned a few days ago prior to the jobs number they will push the dollar up but it won't make it past the 50dma. That is exactly what has happened. To pushes higher and two failures (almost gravestone doji's). Time to start the rollover. This should keep the metals sell off relatively stable.

Buy the dips cause Silver bout to blow up

SILVER

One more sell off and then we take out the recent highs! 

Silver rolling over

Silver Update

Well overnight Silver cut right through the 50dma and hit a high around 4am of 39.5 and since then has been rolling over. Today is the day where the new money gets tested. We'll see how strong the holders are. There isn't really any strong support until 34.5 but I suppose I could make a case for re-entry around 36.

If  it could hold the 50dma it would be really encouraging to build a base around the 40 (for a week) area but I think the banksters have other ideas. Looks like a fear scenario will be created again for the rest of the week. They are going to make it look like a dead cat bounce so the technicians (and Mo-Mo guys) will bail.  


You know why you bought the metal don't you, hang on tight. If you are trading paper like I am partially then you have to be nimble. I am going to buy some ZSL at the open just for protection, will sell at above targets. 

If you are in metals and don't know if you should stay or go, read these!

Jim Rogers: 'US the largest debtor nation in history of the World (LINK)

Home Prices Drop in Three-Fourths of U.S. Metro Areas as Foreclosures Rise (LINK)


Jim Sinclair - “We’re Nowhere Near a Top in Gold!” (Link)


Richard Russell - Expect Huge Rebound in Silver (Link)

James Dines-Time to buy Silver again! (Link)

S&P 500 Recap

S&P Futures are up 6 points this morning. German exports surged in March to the highest monthly value ever recorded, boosting growth in Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s economic recovery is broadening as companies boost investment and hiring to meet booming export demand from emerging Asia.China's global trade surplus widened to $11.4 billion as import growth fell amid government efforts to cool an overheated economy and exports rose by nearly 30 percent, data showed Tuesday. The gap exceeded private sector forecasts of $5 billion to $10 billion and was a strong rebound after China reported a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year.

SPX will be firmly above the 1344 break out and should test the recent high by early next week.

Yesterdays session with small gap higher before trading in a very narrow range for the first hour. But the low of the day was on the chart just before 11:00 am and the indices began to climb. The move of the day was right about noon as the SPX climbed nine points in about twenty minutes. The rest of the day was lazy low-volume trading that saw the high of the day painted at 2:41 pm while the SPX traded within a three point range for the final four hours of the session.

For the SPX Index there were 265 components advancing and 137 components declining. On the NYSE 3,171 issues were traded with 2,138 advancing issues and 935 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.29 to one advancing. There were 121 new highs and 16 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 117 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 23 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 276. The ten day average of Net Advancing moved into bullish territory.


Volume on the day was light. Some traders are saying it was due to Citigroup's ten-for-one reverse split. But that split accounts for maybe a 6% volume decline; the SPX volume declined 30% from Friday's volume.

64% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 41.2% are above their 10 day average, 53.4% are above their 20 day moving average, 61% are above their 50 day moving average, and 83.8% are above their 200 day moving average.

SPX broke out above 1344 and is back on track after successfully testing the breakout levels , will take out the recent highs, dollar falling, commodities rising and June nearing, talk of QE3 should start real soon. 

Dollar about done going up

As I had previously mentioned before the Silver sell off that they were going to print a better than expected jobs number, the dollar would rally to 75, and I think thats exactly what has happened. Expect a move now towards 73-72.5. This obviously bodes well for the metals and other commodities. 

Silver nears 50dma, 38.98

Silver ran right through the 38 resistance level this am (failed a couple of time yesterday).  38.98 is the 50dma we are at  38.58 this am. We need a close above the 50dma so we can build some sort of base.

If for some reason we don't get through the 50dma, and ping off of it expect a drop to 34.5 area and it will be fast as the BB's will try to put the fear of God into the recent money on the long side. If 34.50 doesn't hold then 33.20 is next. Do not get complacent with the new money you put in at the supposed bottom. We will probably get another shake out today or tomorrow, and then I think we take out the old highs (within 10days to two weeks).


Have a great day!

Silver Over 37

Thursday I told you this sell off in Silver is almost over and it seems we bottomed (light blue line) a little after 8am on Friday. That morning I explained why I thought Silver bottoming process would start.

So now we have the fundamentals and the technical ducks so to speak lined up in Silver's favor.

What to watch for:

34.5 was the point that held when they tried to bring it back to test 33.20 the very low in this massive sell off. So I think that MUST hold. If not then we go to 33.20 and  I don't want to even look below that right now.

We broke out over 37 this morning with relative ease. A lot of short cover will start here if it takes out 38. You will recall last week the bottom fell out after 39.5 and silver went down 5 straight points without taking a breath. Well those same guys will cover post haste sending us above 40.

This is the market I'm seeing and trading, not the market I want. I would have loved for Silver to recover slowly because then you don't get the recently jilted weak holders back in so quickly trying to recoup losses. You want the long-term secular bull money coming in and buying dips in tranches. But hey, it is what it is. Enjoy the upside, protect capital at all costs on the downside.

Have a great week everyone!