Wednesday, July 20, 2011

No More Posts: Can't fight the criminals

"I must admit that I figured they would wait until tomorrow but, of course, conditions are most favorable on The Globex when you have the entire battlefield to yourself. Doesn't matter really. Please understand that this was all coordinated. Obama talks right at 1:30 and the PMs are raided at 1:32, right after the pit closes in New York. This is not coincidence! Trade the PMs long enough and you will learn there are no coincidences. Never forget that these markets are manipulated for a reason".


"As stated above, the EE tipped their hand this morning. They didn't anticipate the rallies in copper and crude which made their raids in the early morning futile. So, they just wait around until everyone goes home and they use O'bottom as cover to unload a bunch of metals contracts on the thinly-traded Globex. Same bullshit manipulation, different day". ~TF


www.tfmetalsreport.com is the absolute best site on the web to follow metals and commodities

The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.


Sun Tzu






good luck and best wishes!

Monday, July 18, 2011

Betting on energy




Picked up a small 25% position in this energy names at the open.

S&P 500 Recap

Good morning S&P futures are down 8 points this morning. The usual doom and gloom headlines are visible. A lot of talk about stimulus from politicians over the weekend. On Friday earnings from Google put traders in a better mood and the numbers from Citi weren't terrible. Futures were modestly upbeat in front of the EU stress test results. The Consumer Price Index for June fell by -0.2%, which was below the consensus estimates for a drop of -0.1%. When you strip out food and energy, the so-called Core CPI came in with a gain of +0.3%, which was above the expectations for +0.2% but in line with May’s +0.3%. The Empire Manufacturing Index for July was reported at -3.76, which was below the consensus expectations for a reading of +3.9. The index was better than June reading of -7.79.
 
The Friday session opened with a gap higher and quickly put the high of the day on the chart after just four minutes of trading. After ten points of selling the low was put on the chart right at the end of the opening hour. The rest of the session ping-ponged within the trading range established during the first hour but a final hour rally brought the SPX off the lows to retest the highs at the close. 



Advancing volume was weak compared to advancing issues and the broad NYSE Composite Index was weaker than the SPX; both of these suggest little confidence in the rally. But the TRIN is suggesting further upside ahead.Friday’s volume was higher than Thursday's volume, as would be expected on options expiration. The intraday volume pattern is most interesting for the lack of a volume spike during the rally at the close. The Breadth Indicators look much more bullish after Friday's action while the McClellan Oscillator ten day average continues to be overbought. One thing that catches our attention is that the McClellan Oscillator was negative Friday despite the positive closes on the indices.




 
 Long bond is down slightly this am and the DXY is up 0.42%, but both are range bound and waiting for the Fed. 

SILVER over 40.25

There really isn't much to say except thank you! If we hold 40 today  we may see 45-46 by  end of week.  We know all the debt issues, we know about the problems in Europe, we had hints of QE, politicians are now openly talking about stimulus on all the talk shows this weekend maybe that is what is driving up metals since last night. 

Classic volatility expansion (range breakout) should give us at least 6 dollar in the move before we retest 39.5 but i'm getting ahead of myself, we need to hold this break out certainly looks like we can, but as you have seen in the recent days Blythe's gang can call for some margin hikes or Bernanke can douse the fire with some negative comments.