Friday, March 04, 2011

Fourth Time A Charm?

I have been wrong on calling a top since last summer and I have had to fight myself from repeating the same mistake, going short that is, the market thats been on crack (QE) from months now. This does feel a little different, I think everyone is so used to buying the dips and making money that confidence in that trend is high, initially as with every downturn there is that snap back as people think its business as usually. Its only after being rejected a few times do they start saying are we having a correction and thats when the sell-off accelerates.



So lets look at the headlines, what the NFP numbers weren't good this time, weren't they better than expected, no how come? Are now worried about oil, ow come yesterday we werent? This is just utter non-sense, an excuse to sell. The failure to break out above tuesday's high is extremely bearish in my view and I think yesterdays rally was based on nothing, hence no follow through.

Oh and by the way Silver is up 3%, thanks Dennis Gartman for selling your longs, I think he's buying em back for much more today than he got for em yesterday. As for JPM and HSBC we'll see some sharp action as they cover their shorts, I hear they have big short position at 35 dollars, were at 35.12 on the physical. As for me I sold half my position in Silver yesterday, up 53% since october, didnt wanna be too greedy. I'll buy it back on the next pullback. I hope we get one before we hit that 40 dollar level.

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