Not Believing this Rally! S&P500 and QE3

I have to use SPY as a proxy for SPX due to software problem, as you can see by the chart that it looks like we have made a major top multiple attempts to get up to old high and earthquake, middle east, Egypt or not we had the down move start prior to the news. Tough I don't think we are entering any kind of move like fall of 08 we will continue to go down until we hear talk about QE3, "You and Can Bank On It". 


Look at my post on Liquidity and S&P and I dont have the numbers to support it now but the FED's balance sheet will be telling. And there is talk QE will end after this round as economy is on "firmer footing", Philly Fed blowout number has people talking about growth, and then there is the disinformation, artificial claims numbers, artificial job growth numbers etc. So we could drop a to about the 150dma or slightly below right where QE2 began. But before all that I think we get to the 50dma, and thats when I will put on a big short, that move show hammer us down to the 150, thats when I cover. At that time you will hear about QE3, and if you don't the market will be in free fall. I have been saying all along, this is a house built on defective foundation, unless they keep patching things up its going to collapse. They should have let it breakdown and then have rebuilt it from the bottom up. I know thats hard, everyone including me would be badly hurt but thats the right thing to do, not the easy thing.


But I am neither an economist or policy maker nor do I wish or claim to be. I will just play their game with the cards and hopefully without the blinders they want us all to wear.

Gold & Silver Update

Gold is up $12.50 and Sliver is up .60cents this morning. But both the metals have been beaten down this week, and to me that is real freakin funny! Why, take a look at copper it up big (15 points or so) Oil has ramped up, Grains are limit up, but silver and gold down, "Nah there is no manipulation in the metals market". It crap and everyone who watches this daily knows it, all except the people in charge! Give me a break. Anyway, this is nothing new its been going on for years now and there is no stopping this secular bull, in fact thats whats going to keep the bull going. And though they can be scary if you trade the AGQ (not for the faint of heart, up and down 20 points in a day, some days) I love the pullbacks because it gives me a chance to sell during ramps and buy back lower. 

So Silver and Gold are down this week but it could have been a lot worse. So what happens today is anyones guess but here is what I'm thinking. If gold can get up near 1420 twenty there will be some real buying as people will excited in the metal. As for Silver 34 is the line in the sand, it must be defended or we'll be at 32 quickly. Blythe is defending 36 there are stories out there that they lose billions in derivative losses when silver stays above 36. So keep some powder dry for that 32 level on the physical.

Now for Harvey Organ's Report: The total gold comex open interest fell by a rather large 6141 contracts as some of the speculators started to pitch their longs covering up losses in other stocks. The front options expiry month of March saw its OI drop from 19 to 13 for a drop of 6. We only had 3 deliveries so we lost a few contracts to cash settlements or comex errors in reporting OI. All eyes will be on the front delivery month of April. We saw the April OI fall from 243,356 to 232,371 which seems the rate of contraction. The estimated volume today was a very anemic 105,842. The confirmed volume yesterday was a touch above normal at 167,055. You can see that gold will rise when volume stays below 125,000 contracts.

In silver, the total comex OI fell by a smaller margin from 134,914 to 132,816 for a loss of 2098 contracts. The front March delivery month saw its OI fall only by 25 contracts to 1054 from 1079 despite 57 deliveries yesterday. The next front month of May saw its OI fall from 79,026 to 77,188. It is a little strange that so many are rolling early into the July contracts. The estimated volume at the silver comex today was quite normal at 53,442. The confirmed volume yesterday with the frantic trading due to the Japanese crisis witnessed a huge 86,427 contract day.

S&P Recap and A Look Inside the Markets

Good Morning, S&P Futures are up 8 points this morning, commodities are up, oil up $1.5and it seems the situation at Fukushima Plant is improving and the situation Libya is getting worse, so Japan trumps Libya.
Yesterday With helicopters, water cannons, and fire trucks dousing the Dai-Ichi reactors with water overnight, the situation in Japan appeared to be less severe and the Nikkei finished well off its lows. European markets and U.S. futures were moving up strongly as the session open approached.

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance for the week ending 3/12 fell by 16,000 to 385,000. This was in line with the consensus estimate for 385,000 and last week’s total of 401,000. Continuing Claims for the week ending 3/5 came in at 3.706M vs. 3.750M and last week’s 3.786M. The Consumer Price Index for February rose by +0.5%, which was above the consensus for +0.4% and also January’s reading of +0.4%. When you take out food and energy, the so-called Core CPI came in with a gain of +0.2%, which was a tenth above expectations but in line with January’s +0.1%.



The session began with a large gap higher. Trade was choppy during the morning, putting the high of the day on the chart just before the first hour ended. The hour between 1:00 pm and 2:00 pm provided some excitement as the SPX sold off nine points but shortly after that the index began climbing back higher with a final hour rally while the last ten minutes sold off a bit to close at about 60% of the intraday range.

For the SPX Index there were 405 components advancing and 76 components declining. On the NYSE 3,136 issues were traded with 2,232 advancing issues and 819 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.73 to one advancing. There were 30 new highs and 28 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 82 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 39 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -527. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.

Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 4.21 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.61 and the final tick was 305. The five day average of TRIN is 1.33 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.35. The NYSE Composite Index gained 1.7% today while the SPX gained 1.32%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -1.22% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 6 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 99.8% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 94.6% of the last 10 day average and 70.1% of the previous day’s volume.

New Highs were weak while New Lows remained relatively strong. The ten day average of Net Advancing remains firmly entrenched in bear territory. On the plus side, the NYSE Composite Index outperformed the SPX and this can often be a bullish sign. Follow-through today is crucial if you are long otherwise this simply looks like an oversold bounce in a downtrend.

Total tick for the day was 85,000 and the average tick for the day was 55. There were 97 ticks greater than 600 and 73 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 3 ticks greater than 1000 and 2 ticks more extreme than -1000.

Volume was light today, especially compared to Wednesday's heavy volume. If you are bullish, you're happy with today's rally but you would have liked to have seen a bit more enthusiasm; the overnight romp was really all we got today. Looking at the Breadth Indicators, they are a bit bearish. The real test for the market is coming today. Follow-through on today's rally is required and it's options expiration as well (Quadruple Witching).

Sectors stronger than the SPX for Thursday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +45%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +172%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +21%.

Sectors weaker than the SPX for Thursday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -2%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -30%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -85%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -118%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -17%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -85%.

Morning Headlines

VIENNA, March 17 (Xinhua) -- The situation of Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant remains "very serious" but it appears to have become stable, said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Thursday.

read more




Qaddafi Troops Near Benghazi May Face Air Attack After UN Vote


Muammar Qaddafi’s troops outside the rebel base of Benghazi may face air strikes from the U.S., France and other allies after the United Nations Security Council authorized the use of force to protect civilians.

The council’s resolution, approved yesterday 10-0 with five abstentions, allows the U.S., the U.K., France and Arab nations to “take all necessary measures” to protect civilians. It excludes “a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory.” France said military action may start within hours and U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron called an emergency Cabinet meeting.


read more


Military intervention against Libya may start within “several hours,” French government spokesman Francois Baroin said in an interview on RTL radio.

read more

(Reuters) - Japan bought billions of dollars to restrain a soaring yen on Friday and traders reported intervention by European central banks, kicking off joint action by the world's richest nations to calm markets made nervous by Japan's nuclear crisis.



Read More

What is HAARP: The Military's Pandora's Box

This is some scary stuff, I found this through another blog, SilvergoldSilver.blogspot.com, the guy who runs the blog is a little scary himself, kinda out there but amusing at times.


The Military's Pandora's Box

by Dr. Nick Begich and Jeane Manning

This article was prepared to provide a summary of the contents of a book written in 1995 which describes an entirely new class of weapons. The weapons and their effects are described in the following pages. The United States Navy and Air Force have joined with the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, to build a prototype for a ground based "Star Wars" weapon system located in the remote bush country of Alaska.

The individuals who are demanding answers about HAARP are scattered around the planet. As well as bush dwellers in Alaska, they include: a physician in Finland; a scientist in Holland; an anti-nuclear protester in Australia; independent physicists in the United States; a grandmother in Canada, and countless others.

Unlike the protests of the 1960s the objections to HAARP have been registered using the tools of the 1990s. From the Internet, fax machines, syndicated talk radio and a number of alternative print mediums the word is getting out and people are waking up to this new intrusion by an over zealous United States government.

The research team put together to gather the materials which eventually found their way into the book never held a formal meeting, never formed a formal organization. Each person acted like a node on a planetary info-spirit-net with one goal held by all -- to keep this controversial new science in the public eye. The result of the team's effort was a book which describes the science and the political ramifications of this technology.

That book, Angels Don't Play this HAARP: Advances in Tesla Technology, has 230 pages. This article will only give the highlights. Despite the amount of research (350 footnoted sources), at its heart it is a story about ordinary people who took on an extraordinary challenge in bringing their research forward.

HAARP Boils the Upper Atmosphere

HAARP will zap the upper atmosphere with a focused and steerable electromagnetic beam. It is an advanced model of an "ionospheric heater." (The ionosphere is the electrically-charged sphere surrounding Earth's upper atmosphere. It ranges between 40 to 60 miles above the surface of the Earth.)
Go to link below to find out more:

http://haarp.net/

FDIC's Tab For Failed U.S. Banks Nears $9 Billion

U.S. banking regulators have paid out nearly $9 billion to cover losses on loans and other assets at 165 failed institutions that were sold to stronger companies during the financial crisis.

 The payments were made under loss-sharing agreements struck by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that shield buyers from much of the risk associated with loans inherited from failed banks. The deals, covering everything from empty Las Vegas shopping centers to nearly worthless mortgages in Florida, are a reminder of the price tag attached to many government programs launched near the worst of the crisis.

As the number of bank failures surged, FDIC officials dangled loss-share arrangements as an incentive for banks to acquire institutions and then work to improve the value of their assets over time.

As of Jan. 31, the latest month for which figures are available, the FDIC has paid out $8.89 billion to banks under the loss-share agreements. Such deals are in place at 236 financial institutions, with the FDIC agreeing to assume most future losses on $160 billion of assets.FDIC officials expect to make an additional $21.5 billion in payments from 2011 to 2014. More than half of that total is predicted for this year, followed by an estimated $6 billion in loss-share reimbursements in 2012, according to the agency. Some of the loss-share deals will be in place for 10 years. Read More

S&P 500 Recap and A Look Inside the Markets

Good Morning, the S&P futures are up 1% this morning (for now), there is a lot of data to come at 830 so anything can happen. Gold is up $14A and Silver is up 80 cents and Oil is up a $1.40. More workers are being sent to fix/control the mess at the Fukushima Plant, there were reports yesterday that only 50 people were there for days working day and night to fix the problem. There are also reports that the reactors were to be retired next month and that they were 40 years old, and they weren't working right so someone decided we could maybe get a couple extra days out of them and then...

Patients are like that, well mostly male patients, their shoulder starts to hurt and they will put off going to the Doc till the arms about to fall off and they haven't slept in a week.

Anyway, yesterday Japanese stocks had rebounded strongly (Nikkei 225 +5.68%), but during our session there was a deterioration in the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power plant as well as an escalation in the clashes in Bahrain limited the upside in the European markets. The Labor Department reported the Producer Price Index for February rose by +1.6%, which was above the consensus estimate for +0.6% and above January’s +0.8%. When you strip out food and energy, the so-called Core PPI came in up +0.2%, which was in line with the consensus for +0.2% and below January’s +0.5%. Housing Starts fell by 22.5%% in February to an annualized rate of 479K. This was below the consensus for 564K. Building Permits for February fell 8% to 517K. This was also below the consensus of 569K and last month’s reading of 563K.

The Wednesday session began with a gap lower and continued lower for several minutes before starting an hour long rally attempt. Then the EU energy chief said things were "out of control" at the Fukushima Plant and within moments the Dow dropped 160 points. The Dow quickly (within three minutes!) recovered 100 points but the damage was done and any enthusiasm in the market was gone; today's party was all for the bears as the SPX crashed through main support. The index bounced off a weaker level of support but quickly sold off eight points after the bounce to close the session at the low end of the intra-day range.

For the SPX Index there were 30 components advancing and 452 components declining. On the NYSE 3,122 issues were traded with 704 advancing issues and 2,355 retreating issues, a ratio of 3.35 to one declining. There were 32 new highs and 40 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 101 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 40 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -476. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.

Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 10.17 to one. The closing TRIN was 3.12 and the final tick was -874. The five day average of TRIN is 1.58 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.34. The NYSE Composite Index lost -2% today while the SPX lost -1.99%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 39.6% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 7 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 141.3% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 140.9% of the last 10 day average and 113.9% of the previous day’s volume.

New Lows fell from 70 yesterday to 40 today while New Highs ticked upward slightly. This is a bullish divergence in the breadth data. And the TRIN is calling for a bounce back.

Total tick for the day was -132,000 and the average tick for the day was -85. There were 90 ticks greater than 600 and 216 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 2 ticks greater than 1000 and 35 ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional distribution.

The intraday volume shows a large spike around 11:00 am when the EU news broke about their opinion of the Japanese crisis. A second, smaller volume spike came with the afternoon SPX downward move. There is nothing at all bullish about this volume pattern except that it often signifies a short-term bottoming process. Looking at McClellan's Oscillator I see it has reach a level not seen since May 21st and the Summation Index was in negative territory. That in itself is screaming for a bounce but the like in rock paper scissors, the news is dominant now and it does not matter what the technicals are telling you. And that goes against everything I have have read, I'm supposed to ignore the news and listen my indicators.

Sectors stronger than the SPX for Wednesday:
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +34%.
- Financials -- Outperformed the SPX by +10%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +9%.
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +53%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +37%.
- Health Care -- Outperformed the SPX by +20%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +35%.

Sectors weaker than the SPX for Wednesday:
- Basic Materials -- Underperformed the SPX by -25%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -51%.




I'm having charting software problems, for some reason my Index charts are off so I will have to use SPY (ETF) to demonstrate SPX for now.

Gold and Silver Update

There have been quite a few reports out there suggesting that a complete meltdown at the nuclear reactors in Japan has occurred. Reports of helicopters trying to pour water on the reactors seem to suggest that radiation is leaking as the fuel rods have probably fused and burst sending out radioactive iodine and cesium. This is very dangerous as the winds are heading south and that means Toyko. Tonight's commentary will be lengthy and give you all the necessary commentaries on Japan. It looks to me like we are very close to a banking holiday everywhere.

I would like to begin with the gold and silver market. Gold rose by $3.40 to close at 1:30pm (comex closing) at $1396, Silver also gained, rising by 35 cents to $34.47.

Let us proceed immediately to the comex floor and see what transpired today. The total gold comex open interest fell by only 3912 contracts to 507,760 with perhaps the greatest firepower of a raid possible yesterday.

(Remember OI is always 1 trading day back). The front options expiry month of March saw its OI fall from 90 to 19 for a fall of 71 contracts. The deliveries yesterday were 73 so all of the decline was due to those deliveries and we even gained a bit. As such there were no cash settlements in gold.

The new front month of April saw its total open interest fall from 257932 to 243,356 for a drop of 14,576 which is to be expected as we draw closer to April. The estimated volume today was rather on the low end coming it at 135,984. The confirmed volume yesterday was truly a monster criminal volume of 261,063.
To have the OI drop only 3900 contracts is quite a feat. The bankers are very annoyed.

Let us head over to silver;

The total silver comex OI stunned the bankers today as the OI dropped to 134,914 from yesterday's reading of 136,093. The drop was only 1179 contracts. The object of yesterday's raid was silver and you can imagine the faces of the bankers when they saw minor contraction in OI. They certainly have a problem in silver. All eyes are on the front delivery month of March in silver. The OI fell from 1309 to 1079 for a loss of 230 contracts. We had 188 deliveries so we also got some cash settlements today. It is highly unlikely that any long putting up 100% of cash would roll. Judging from the total OI numbers hardly anybody bailed. So Blythe must have enticed some longs with a handsome reward.

The estimated volume today was a very decent 68,590 contracts as it seems the world is after silver. The confirmed volume yesterday was 104,160. Each contract is 5000 oz so the volume yesterday equates to 520 million oz or 74% of annual silver production.  

Post by: Harvey Organ

Bungling, cover-ups define Japanese nuclear power

(AP) – 1 hour ago

TOKYO (AP) — Behind Japan's escalating nuclear crisis sits a scandal-ridden energy industry in a comfy relationship with government regulators often willing to overlook safety lapses.

Leaks of radioactive steam and workers contaminated with radiation are just part of the disturbing catalog of accidents that have occurred over the years and been belatedly reported to the public, if at all.

In one case, workers hand-mixed uranium in stainless steel buckets, instead of processing by machine, so the fuel could be reused, exposing hundreds of workers to radiation. Two later died.

"Everything is a secret," said Kei Sugaoka, a former nuclear power plant engineer in Japan who now lives in California. "There's not enough transparency in the industry."

Sugaoka worked at the same utility that runs the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant where workers are racing against time to prevent a full meltdown following Friday's 9.0 magnitude quake and tsunami.

In 1989 Sugaoka received an order that horrified him: edit out footage showing cracks in plant steam pipes in video being submitted to regulators. Sugaoka alerted his superiors in the Tokyo Electric Power Co., but nothing happened. He decided to go public in 2000. Three Tepco executives lost their jobs. Read More

Swiss Franc: Risk Aversion Trade

No one is running to the dollar it seems, you would think the commodity sell-off was because of the dollar gaining strength but its not the case at all. 

Gap up after earthquake and gaining

Tell Me If You Disagree: QE Explained

See if you can disagree with the flawless logic of a cartoon video explaining Ben Bernanke and QE. It's so simple a child could understand it—maybe that's why it was made into a cartoon? (Excerpt provided by Malekanoms via YouTube as original creator, video at bottom)

"So why do they call it the quantitative easing? Why don't they just call it the printing money?"

"Because the printing money is the last refuge of failed economic empires and banana republics. And the Fed doesn't want to admit this is their only idea."

"So why do they want to print the money?"

"Because they say we have the deflation. And the deflation is very bad."

"What is the deflation?"

"The deflation is when prices of the things we buy go down."

"Isn't that good? Does't it mean the people can buy more of the stuff?"

"Yes, but the Fed said this is bad. Especially during the recession."

"So they think that during the recession when the people have less money to buy the stuff it is bad that the prices go down?"

"Yes, the Fed would rather have the inflation."

"So why does the Fed think we have the deflation?"

"Because the CPI said so."

"But aren't the food prices higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't the gas prices higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't the health care costs higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't tuition prices higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't the taxes higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't the subway fares higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't the stock prices higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"Aren't the bond prices higher than a year ago?"

"Yes."

"So what is deflating right now?"

"The only thing deflating that I can see is the Fed's credibility."

"Did they have a lot of credibility to start with?"

"No."

"Why not?"

"Because the Fed has been wrong about every major economic development in the past 20 years."

"You mean, they didn't see the internet stock bubble?"

"No. In fact they helped fuel the internet stock bubble."

"And they didn't see the housing bubble?"

"No. In fact, they helped cause the housing bubble."

"And they didn't see the subprime crisis?"

"No. In fact, they told us subprime problems were contained right before the s--t hit the fan and the Lehman went bankrupt."

"So has the Fed ever been right about anything?"

"Let me see if I can think of anything....(long pause)....no, nothing."

"Who runs the Fed?"

"The Fed is run by the Ben Bernank."

"Does the Ben Bernank have a lot of business experience?"

"No. The Ben Bernank has no business experience."

"Does the Ben Bernank have a lot of policy experience?"

"No. The Ben Bernank has no policy experience."

"Has the Ben Bernank ever run in an election?"

"No. The Ben Bernank has never run in an election."

"So what qualifies him to run the Fed?"

"I don't know. Maybe the fact that he has a nice beard."

"But my plumber also has a nice beard and I would not trust him to play god with the economy."

"No, although when you call the plumber to fix something that is broken they usually fix it, not break it more."

"This is true, the plumber is clearly smarter than the Ben Bernank."

"Well, that is why he became a plumber and not an economist."

Watch the video below to continue:

Link

Finally it gets scary to be long

Lower Highs and Lower Lows
Does not look good if you are bullish on this market does it?
But wait, it's like Rock Paper Scissors, QE beats all!

We put in the top of this move at 1345 and we have had multiple attempts to get back up there and failed, then 1333 became the ceiling and we could quite stay there and then we broke through the floor at the 50dma 1294 or so, and so now what, well now we wait for "The Bernank". Cause QE3 and well be at 1345 in a day.

QE and Its Relationship to S&P

When the credit crisis erupted in the summer of 2008 and the S&P 500 began to crash, the Fed’s Balance sheet was flat and at a very low level for the remainder of that year and into early 2009. It was at that point that QE 1 began. The Fed began buying up MBS securities (Mortgage Backed Securities) they were the derivatives behind the collapse of several major institutions and brokerage houses.

The beginning of the QE program marked the exact bottom in the S&P 500 index. We then had a huge almost uninterrupted run up in price from 700 level to near the 1100 level in January 2010. It then moved lower but found further buying running to 1200 in April 2010 where it stalled out and fell off quite sharply surrendering nearly 200 points before it bottomed again in July 2010. Would you believe during this time (during the decline in S&P) the Fed’s Balance Sheet began flatlining again and actually began to shrink somewhat.

Thus, the reasoning goes that the 200 point loss (16% loss in 3 months) in the S&P was due to the fact that the Fed’s first Quantitative Easing program was coming to an end and traders began to fear the worst, meaning NO MOH FREE DOUGH or end of the liquidity injections into the banking system. It was this free money, which had fueled the enormous rally in US stock markets over the course that past year.

Then from April 2010 to August 2010, the stock market basically went nowhere. Traders were believing that the worst of the credit crisis fallout was behind them but they could not see any signs of strong economic growth, at least growth in sufficient size to justify taking the stock indices any higher. You might even remember that it was during time April 2010 drop in stock prices that the phrase, “green shoots” ala financial media, ala "The Maria's, Michelle's and Erin's, I had to stop eating Kashi, I was so full of green shoots, well you get the picture. So what happened to the green shoot, well they died on the vine when it appeared that QE1 was ending and there was nothing to take its place. And as noted earlier during this time frame the Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve was shrinking.

In September 2010 it was announced that since the economy was still encountering strong headwinds, another tool would be needed to stave off deflationary pressures and provide more liquidity to “gradually increase inflationary pressures” which would be necessary to break any deflationary mindset. And even though the QE2 program was not to be implemented until November 2010, the stock markets went gaga and launched into another rally taking the S&P 500 past the old April high and onto new heights near 1330's before the correction. So once again we see a correlation between the further expansion of the Fed’s Balance Sheet with QE2 and the move in S&P.

The conclusion we can draw through all of this is very simple – it is the expansion of the Fed’s Balance Sheet through both QE1 and QE2 which has supplied the liquidity driving equity markets higher. Without this liquidity the economic expansion has been far too fragile to continue on its own. So any talk about the Fed supposedly withdrawing this liquidity one has to believe that the economic recovery is of sufficient strength to hold its own without it. So QE isn't going anywhere!

So that is all well and good now lets look at whats not working, the Fed has been attempting to keep interest rates artificially low and make credit cheap and plentiful well since the QE started the rates have gone from 3.2 to 4.7 until the recent pullback on the 30 year.


Fed can't stop printing money or say if the starts selling the treasuries they bought as a result of QE (thats what they are doing, Peter to pay Paul) it will cause an undesired effect pushing rates higher above the short end of the yield curve. The net result would be a tightening of credit and slowing its growth precisely at a time in which higher energy costs are crimping both businesses and consumers (Crude over 100). 

Can anyone seriously believe that if crude oil prices remain near current levels and gasoline subsequently stays closer to $4.00 that the Fed is going to actually attempt to shrink the size of its balance sheet by selling off Treasuries. Higher interest rates would be catastrophic  for a real estate sector which is still in the ICU and isn't responding to treatment, or QE in this case? If you think the rate of job hiring is anemic now, what do you think will happen if interest rates start moving higher on withdrawal of liquidity or even talk of it, YIKES.

The last point I wish to make and is a bit unrelated to this but is relevant – The unstated purpose of the Fed’s QE2 program was to keep interest rates low to lower borrowing costs for the US federal government. When your national debt is over 14 trillion and rising, when annual budget deficits are above one trillion and the rate of economic growth is not generating sufficient tax revenues to give any hope of seriously closing these budget deficits in the immediate future, it becomes a simple exercise in math that the cost of servicing this huge sum of debt is far easier in a low interest rate environment. When you dealing with numbers of this magnitude, a measly 1% raise in rates carries enormous consequences for US borrowing costs and interest rate payments.

 The situation is that the Fed is stuck. It cannot withdraw any liquidity without creating an entirely new set of problems that would more than likely have to be once again dealt with by adding more liquidity and repeating the cycle. Hence QE3 etc, etc, etc...

If this were not already enough, the Japanese are now selling US Treasuries to repatriate money back to their country for rebuilding purposes (Japanese insurance companies hold large numbers of US Treasuries which they will need to sell and convert to yen to pay claims – that is the reason for the big rally in the yen on Friday and the weakness in the Treasuries). 


PIMCO sold their US Debt, China is selling, if the dollar keeps going down who will be left to lend us money or if they do they are going to want to get paid more on their investment, that means higher rates, and we can't afford to do that for the reasons I stated previously. God help us, this won't end well.

Recap of The raid In Metals

The banking boys showed up in London and in the USA doing their usual, by raiding paper gold and paper silver.

The real stuff, they have problems getting. Gold closed today down by $32.00 to $1392.60. Silver fell by $1.70 to $34.12, as the bankers supplied massive unbacked paper (see below) in their attempt to show the world that everything is fine. The nuclear fallout in Japan is severe.

Let us go to the comex and see how trading fared today.

The total gold comex OI fell by 8253 contracts with today's reading which is basis yesterday.Todays reading came it at 511,672 and yesterday's level was 519925. Gold held its own yesterday so I do not fully understand why the huge drop in OI. The front March expiry month saw its OI mysteriously rise from 36 to 90 as I guess the bankers had these exercised contracts in their back pocket and did not reveal them until today. The next front month for gold is April and here we saw the open interest fall marginally from 268,991 to 257,932 for a drop of 11,059 which seems to be the rate of rollovers into the next delivery month of June.

The estimated volume today at the comex was a criminal 263,397 with only 11000 rollovers. The confirmed volume yesterday (with an identical 11000 rollovers) came in at 125,497 which is below average. With a volume of 125,000 gold will remain pretty stationary. It is when you throw 265,000 contracts which represents 26.5 million oz, that is when you see massive drops in the price of paper gold. By the way 26.5 million oz represents approximately 35% of annual world gold production. And the comex is not the major bourse in the world for gold, it is the LBMA over in London.

In silver, the total comex silver OI fell by only 884 contracts to 136,093 from yesterday's 138,970. The OI reading in silver seems fine here. It is the gold reading that seems way off. The front delivery month of March saw its OI rise from 1303 to 1309. Strange indeed, as we had 72 contracts delivered yesterday. We certainly got more silver standing for March.

The next delivery month of May saw the OI fall from 85,379 to 80,675/ Since we have quite a way to go until May this is also a little strange as to why so many decided to leave May and go to July. The estimated volume at the silver comex today was a monster of a day: 101,076. The confirmed volume for yesterday was quite good at 61,854. That kind of shows you what kind of unbacked paper was supplied today and our regulators as always look the other way at this criminal behavior.


By Harvey Organ

S&P 500 Recap and A Look Inside the Markets

There is so much going on this morning, Japan, Bahrain, and Libya, see post below of major headlines, When I woke up this morning around 4am est, bit of insomnia lately, the S&P futures were up about 4.5 points on the back of the Japanese market surge but then 20 mins later Reuters and AP reported that things have taken for the worse at the Fukushima Plant, and things are worsening in Bahrain and now the futures are in the red, interesting gold and silver went down as well.

Yesterday, Stock markets around the world were down hard this morning on news of yet another explosion at the Fukushima nuclear facility in northern Japan. Reports indicated that a fourth reactor was in trouble and that radiation being emitted is now reaching dangerous levels. The Empire Manufacturing Index for March was reported at 17.5, which was above the consensus expectations for a reading of 17.06. The government also reported that Import Prices for the month of February rose by +1.4%, which was above the consensus for an increase of +1.0%. Export prices rose by +1.2%, below last month’s revised level of +1.3% (January: +0.6%).

There was a rare session where the FOMC announcement did not take center stage for the day; the crisis in Japan had the full attention of traders. I have to say there more more than I couple of things I didn't get from the announcement but I will save that for a rant! 

I was shocked there was no re-test of the intraday low and people just bought this thing up. This is CRAZY behavior.

Back to the S&P: Under intense selling pressure from the futures (Down 2.5%), the session began with a huge gap lower but quickly put the low of the day on the chart after just seven minutes. With only minor pullbacks along the path, the index steadily climbed higher the entire session gaining twenty-six points off the lows before some selling in the last quarter hour took the index down six points. But the index still closed at 75% of the intraday range once again for the fifth time in six sessions.

I think the rally was based on rumors that the Tokyo Exchange would stay open the rest of the week and that the nuclear situation was in control.  

Breadth was obviously poor on a 1% down session. But the TRIN is calling for a bounce and something else we find significant within the data: Notice the ten day average of Net Advancing. Yesterday it was -219 and today it fell to only -230. I use -200 to indicate a bearish trend and the ten day average has hardly budged lower even with today's plunge.

The only noticeable intraday volume pattern is that the volume was heavy at the open and fell off dramatically with the normal volume spike after the FOMC announcement. Looking at the Breadth Indicators I see that they are really more mixed this evening than expected. The McClellan Oscillator is the most oversold it has been since November 17th but the Summation Index still suggests that we bounce.

For the SPX Index there were 65 components advancing and 415 components declining. On the NYSE 3,126 issues were traded with 675 advancing issues and 2,375 retreating issues, a ratio of 3.52 to one declining. There were 29 new highs and 77 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 106 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 34 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -230. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.

So as I finish this (S&P futures are down 4.5 points), the last headlines I see are that the nuclear situation is dire in Japan, ECB under pressure as inflation quickens. The only way this market goes to the 150dma is if there is no QE3 or they will announce it as it goes towards it, and you know they are not going to stop printing money, inflation isn't coming, its here folks, just ask Bill Gross (why you think he dumped all those bonds). 


I couldn't believe it when "the Bernank" said that what they expected inflation to be, and what it is now, its tame or something like that, ah yeah! If you are rich or upper middle class its tame, what about everybody else. Oh, thats right they don't give a crap.


And the economy is or "firmer footing", tell that to the 43 million on food stamps, the 700K homeless and the unemployed. They are just manufacturing numbers pure and simple.


QE to Infinity and BEYOND!

URZ Follow up

URZ not too late to ride this up to 5 plus

up 24% since I bought this yesterday so why am I not taking profits, well read yesterdays post on industry and growth prospects. Just keep tight stops on new buys!

Foreign bankers flee Tokyo as nuclear crisis deepens

(Reuters) - Foreign bankers are fleeing Tokyo asJapan's nuclear crisis worsens, scrambling for commercial and charter flights out of the country and into other major cities in the region.

BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Standard Chartered (STAN.L) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) were among the banks whose staff have left since Friday's earthquake and tsunami, and now a nuclear plant disaster, according to industry sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

Expatriate staff at most foreign banks in Tokyo make up a small portion of the total, by some estimates less than 10 percent. But many are often in senior positions so their departure can have a significant impact.

And while Japan's investment banking market is famously tough, it's an essential place for large banks to be and can produce hefty fees.

"The foreign banker presence on the ground in Tokyo now is very thin and depending on how long it takes them to return there could be lasting implications of that," said one banker. "Every time there's a washout of foreigners in Japan they never quite return in the same numbers."

Original Source

DEFENSE FORCES ABORT LATEST COOLING MISSION

MASSIVE DAMAGE SEEN AT THE REACTORS, DEFENSE FORCES ABORT LATEST COOLING MISSION

Update 4:49 AM ET: Nouriel Roubini's shop RGE Monitor (via @tracyalloway) has sent out a note on the crisis, predicting it gets upgraded from a 4 to a 5. The note is authored by Mikka Peneda:

This year marks Chernobyl's 25th anniversary, and how ironic it is that the world has a new nuclear emergency on its hands: Japan's Fukushima power plant, operated by TEPCO. The situation at Fukushima continues to worsen, with explosions at two more reactors and the radiation released surpassing that of Three Mile Island. The 40-year-old reactors, designed by General Electric, were due for decommissioning at the end of this month.

The Fukushima nuclear incident will likely be upgraded from a level 4 to a 5 on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. The scale runs from 0 to 7—the most severe. The incident will remain "an event with local consequences," although this excludes the consequences for the expansion of nuclear power generation around the world. Three Mile Island was a level 5; Chernobyl was a level 7—the only level 7 event so far.

Regarding Three Mile Island...

In 1979, Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island (TMI) power plant experienced a cascade of events more similar to those of Fukushima. TMI was a pressurized water reactor; Fukushima was a boiling water reactor. There's little difference between the two insofar as both used water to cool and regulate the reactors, except that TMI had a pressurizer. Like Fukushima, Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) was vented into the air to reduce pressure in the core, releasing some fissile products (Cesium-137 and Iodine-131—the same products released from Fukushima). TMI-2 also experienced a small hydrogen explosion, which tore off the exterior walls of the containment building, and a partial core meltdown. Cleanup cost US$975 million and took 14 years to complete.

Read All

Major Headlines

The markets in Japan surged overnight but with this recent development at the nuclear power plant will most like cause more selling. I believe the rally yesterday came because there were reports that the plant was under control and the leak was minimal. Obviously people became optimistic. They will turn. Just keep an eye on the EWJ today. It should be down big!
BANGKOK (AP) -- Japanese stocks rebounded Wednesday, recovering some of the massive losses sustained over the last two days following a devastating earthquake and tsunami. Other Asian indexes also bounced back even as the human and economic toll from the disasters, including an escalating nuclear crisis, remained unclear.

Oil prices hovered above $97 a barrel after big losses overnight. In currencies, the dollar was up against the yen and the euro.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 index briefly surged more than 6 percent but softened slightly after Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility.

Read all

Bank of Japan emergency funding hits nearly $700B

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's central bank continued to flood money markets with cash on Wednesday, bringing its total emergency funding to nearly $700 billion as it tries to soothe fears about the economic impact of the catastrophic earthquake, tsunami and unfolding nuclear crisis.

The latest offer of Bank of Japan funding came as stock markets bounced back from a steep sell-off that sent the benchmark Nikkei down 20 percent over two days to an almost two-year low. The index finished up 5.7 percent at 9,093.72.

The Bank of Japan conducted emergency operations for the the third day in a row, bringing its total liquidity injection to 55.6 trillion yen ($688.3 billion) since Monday. By flooding the banking system with money, it hopes banks will continue lending and meet the likely surge in demand for post-disaster funds.

The government on Wednesday ordered emergency workers to withdraw from a stricken nuclear plant amid a surge in radiation, temporarily suspending efforts to cool the overheating reactors. The nuclear crisis has triggered international alarm and partly overshadowed the human tragedy caused by Friday's 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the subsequent tsunami.

Read all

Oil rises above $98 amid Bahrain, Libya clashes

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose to above $98 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as fears that clashes in Bahrain and Libya could further disrupt crude supplies outweighed concern Japan's disaster will crimp demand.

Benchmark crude for April delivery was up 97 cents at $98.15 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent crude was up $1.75 at $110.27 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange.

Demostrators in Bahrain said at least two people were killed Wednesday when troops and police battled with anti-government protesters. On Tuesday, about 1,000 soldier from Saudi Arabia entered Bahrain at the request of the government to help quell the uprising.

Meanwhile, month-long fighting between government and rebel forces in Libya has cut most of the OPEC nation's crude production.

Read all

Japan suspends work at stricken nuclear plant

22 mins ago

FUKUSHIMA, Japan – Japan ordered emergency workers to withdraw from its stricken nuclear plant Wednesday amid a surge in radiation, temporarily suspending efforts to cool the overheating reactors.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the workers, who have been dousing the reactors with seawater in a frantic effort to stabilize their temperatures, had no choice but to pull back from the most dangerous areas.

"The workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said, as smoke billowed above the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex. "Because of the radiation risk we are on standby."

The nuclear crisis has triggered international alarm and partly overshadowed the human tragedy caused by Friday's 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the subsequent tsunami, a blast of black seawater that pulverized Japan's northeastern coastline. The quake was one of the strongest recorded in history.

Later Wednesday, officials said they were considering using helicopters to dump water onto the most troubled reactors in a desperate effort to cool them down.

But Edano has already warned that may not work.

"It's not so simple that everything will be resolved by pouring in water. We are trying to avoid creating other problems," he said.

"We are actually supplying water from the ground, but supplying water from above involves pumping lots of water and that involves risk. We also have to consider the safety of the helicopters above," he said.

Radiation levels had gone down by later Wednesday, but it was not immediately clear if the workers had been allowed back in, or how far away they had withdrawn. The workers at the forefront of the fight — a core team of 70 — had been regularly rotated in and out of the danger zone to minimize their radiation exposure.

Meanwhile, officials in Ibaraki prefecture, just south of Fukushima, said radiation levels were about 300 times normal levels by late morning. While those levels are unhealthy for prolonged periods, they are far from fatal.

Days after Friday's twin disasters, millions of people were struggling along the coast with little food, water or heat, and already chilly temperatures dropped further as a cold front moved in. Up to 450,000 people are staying in temporary shelters, often sleeping on the floor of school gymnasiums.

More than 11,000 people are officially listed as dead or missing, but most officials believe the final death toll will be well over 10,000 people.

In an extremely rare address to the nation, Emperor Akihito expressed his condolences and urged Japan not to give up.

"It is important that each of us shares the difficult days that lie ahead," said Akihito, 77, a figure deeply respected across the country. "I pray that we will all take care of each other and overcome this tragedy."

He also expressed his worries over the nuclear crisis, saying: "With the help of those involved I hope things will not get worse."

Since the quake and wave hit, authorities have been struggling to avert an environmental catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex, 140 miles (220 kilometers) north of Tokyo. The tsunami knocked out the backup diesel generators needed to keep nuclear fuel cool, setting off the atomic crisis.

In the city of Fukushima, about 40 miles (60 kilometers) inland from the nuclear complex, hundreds of harried government workers, police officers and others struggled to stay on top of the situation in a makeshift command center.

An entire floor of one of the prefecture's office buildings had been taken over by people tracking evacuations, power needs, death tolls and food supplies.

In one room, uniformed soldiers evaluated radiation readings on maps posted across a wall. In another, senior officials were in meetings throughout the day, while nuclear power industry representatives held impromptu briefings before rows of media cameras.

Wednesday's radiation spike was apparently the result of a release of pressure that had built up in the complex's Unit 2 reactor, officials said. Steam and pressure build up in the reactors as workers try to cool the fuel rods, leading to controlled pressure releases through vents — as well as uncontrolled explosions.

A U.S. nuclear expert said he feared the worst.

"It's more of a surrender," said David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who now heads the nuclear safety program for the Union of Concerned Scientists, an activist group. "It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse."

"It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel," Lochbaum said.

Edano said the government expects to ask the U.S. military for help, though he did not elaborate. He said the government is still considering whether to accept offers of help from other countries.

The government has ordered some 140,000 people in the vicinity to stay indoors. A little radiation was also detected in Tokyo, triggering panic buying of food and water.

There are six reactors at the plant. Units 1, 2 and 3, which were operating last week, shut down automatically when the quake hit. Since then, all three have been rocked by explosions. Compounding the problems, on Tuesday a fire broke out in Unit 4's fuel storage pond, an area where used nuclear fuel is kept cool, causing radioactivity to be released into the atmosphere.

Units 4, 5 and 6 were shut at the time of the quake, but even offline reactors have nuclear fuel — either inside the reactors or in storage ponds — that need to be kept cool.

Meanwhile, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency estimated that 70 percent of the rods have been damaged at the No. 1 reactor.

Japan's national news agency, Kyodo, said that 33 percent of the fuel rods at the No. 2 reactor were damaged and that the cores of both reactors were believed to have partially melted.

"We don't know the nature of the damage," said Minoru Ohgoda, spokesman for the country's nuclear safety agency. "It could be either melting, or there might be some holes in them."

Meanwhile, the outer housing of the containment vessel at the No. 4 unit erupted in flames early Wednesday, said Hajimi Motujuku, a spokesman for the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Japan's nuclear safety agency said fire and smoke could no longer be seen at Unit 4, but that it was unable to confirm that the blaze had been put out.

___

Yuasa reported from Tokyo. Associated Press writers Elaine Kurtenbach in Tokyo and David Stringer in Ofunato contributed to this report.

Sliver Manipulation: Fox News Examines

Fox Business examines silver price manipulation complaint

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2011-03-15 15:29. Section: Daily Dispatches
11:24a ET Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Five minutes of last night's Fox Business television network program "Follow the Money" were devoted to complaints of manipulation of the silver market by JPMorgan Chase and HSBC. Cited specifically was the testimony of London silver trader and whistleblower Andrew Maguire, brought to the March 2010 hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission by GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and GATA Board of Directors member Adrian Douglas. Video of the segment has been posted at the Fox Business Internet site under the headline "Wall Street Conspirators Driving Spike in Silver" 

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4585864

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Uranium Miners Follow Up

We have all read the news about the Nuclear leak and explosions, because of the quake Japan had to shut down 11 of Japan's 53 nuclear power plants. Its being reported that three of the most damaged plants lost their ability to cool the uranium fuel rods. When you can't cool the fuel, we can't control the nuclear reaction, resulting in a meltdown.

The New York Times is calling it the worst nuclear accident since the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. That event drove the price of uranium down over 60%. The small miners fell off a cliff even the URA which is the main ETF fell more than 40% in a few days, the selling had started before the earthquake along with the S&P.

But no matter what happens in Japan, nuclear energy is not going away. The world needs much more electricity than it can produce right now. Western countries consume around 7,000 kilowatt hours per person per year. For China and Brazil, that number is only 2,250. For India, it's only 500.

But because Brazil, China, and India get more wealthy every day, the number of consumers are growing rapidly, in a lot of places they have to do rolling blackouts to conserve energy. Once the middle class grows they'll want to stream movies over the Internet, too, and everything else that comes with a wealthier lifestyle. That means the electrical power supply must grow. I believe to keep it affordable a big part of the equation must be nuclear power as part of the mix.

China, which plans to build 60 new power plants over the next decade, isn't going to stop because of what happened in Japan… neither will India, which has 40 new reactors on the books over the next 20 years. Both these countries need electricity desperately, and nuclear power is a big part of that plan.That notwithstanding, the rout is on in the uranium sector. The juniors I've been talking about fell between 10% and 35%. Cameco, the ExxonMobil of uranium miners, dropped 13% on Monday. Was down big this morning before reversing.

Here's the thing: Japan's 56 nuclear reactors consume nearly 8,000 tons of uranium per year. If 11 are offline, 1,570 tons will go unused this year. That's about 2% of the world's consumption. Hardly enough to flood the market. Existing power plants all over the world still need uranium. Soon-to-be-built power plants in China and India will need uranium, too.

So I don't see this as a reversal! Just a correction. 

The Big Kahuna of the miners

My favorite small cap, I had made good money with this one,  got great funde's, do you own homework dont take my word for it

MONY MONY, MONY MONY! Can You Hear Billy, Ben He's Talking to You

Mony Mony, Mony Mony, advice from Billy Idol to "The Ben Bernank", start the printing presses Ben, the markets tanking and people will not go to the mall and borrow more against their 401K's Jeeze stop the bleeding Ben, Get Blythe to short more Silver and Gold LOL. I can just hear it, so loud and clear!

Today, Hedge funds are dumping everything in sight in order to avoid catastrophic margin calls, I posted earlier this month or late last that margin levels were at like 1999 levels or more, these guys are just getting FUBAR, today. The selling will come in waves as margin calls are issued. But, I'm using this volatility to add to gold/silver holdings.

I expect the Fed to be very, very generous, "free money you big Banksters" (wink wink) although they may not come out and tell you plainly, see what they say when they release their FOMC meeting policy decision later today (read between the lines). The Fed will use Japan's disaster as camouflage to keep the QE going. I also expect them at some point to include mortgage-backed garbage, Fannie Freddie SH^t and problems in the muni bond market as well. Inflation isn't coming, it's here now been screaming about it for a while. Inflation is the enemy of currency, bonds and other fixed income vehicles, RUN from that stuff.

Time To Make A Small Buy EWJ JOF

Gonna pull the trigger on EWJ and JOF this morning the MACD is right at the level I spoke about yesterday, buying 25% position. I put in a Bid of 7.5 on JOF and 9.34 on EWJ. We are not at panic selling yet folks on the S&P so if you want to go long this is NOT the time. I will play the bounce and then short but this isn't the bottom its just the beginning of the SH^t storm. Yesterday days selling was high volume, was orderly so relax. VIX is up 20% WOW!!!!

Got mine filled at 9.31 on the EWJ and 7.89 on the JOF (yes, I got impatient)

Take a look at the MACD, that is what I was waiting for!!!

NEW YORK (AP) 10am March 15th 2011 -- Stocks are plunging, and bond prices are rising, as the nuclear crisis in Japan intensifies following a deadly earthquake and tsunami. The Dow Jones industrial average fell almost 300 points.

Dangerous levels of radiation began leaking from a crippled nuclear plant Tuesday, forcing Japan to order 140,000 people to stay indoors. Japan's prime minister also warned that more leaks could occur.

Futures Down BIG!!!

S&P U.S. futures are down more than 2.5 % after the Nikkei index posting its biggest two-day drop since 1987, commodities are all down huge this morning and Treasuries are up on concern a nuclear disaster is unfolding in Japan. Bahrain credit risk soared after Saudi troops entered the nation.

The MSCI World Index of stocks is down 2.3 percent, while the Nikkei dropped 10.6 percent to the lowest since April 2009 and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures tumbled 2.8 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury down 11 basis points to 3.24 percent and the two-year German note yield down 13 basis points, adding to its longest run of declines since November 2009. USD up .7%, the Swiss franc stronger against its 16 most-traded peers while oil lost 2.6 percent. Credit-default swaps insuring Japanese debt climbed to a record high.
Credit-default swaps on Bahrain jumped 20 basis points to 334, the highest since July 2009, according to CMA. Contracts on Japan soared 26 basis points to a record 122, and Tepco rose 253.5 basis points to an all-time high 402.5, up from 40.5 basis points on March 11. The Persian Gulf shares sank 2.7 percent and the Saudi all shares lost 3.6 percent, the biggest slide in almost two weeks.


Gold and Silver are being hammered big time as the dreaded Blythe Masters is on her horse with no name, be very afraid, she rides for the FED with endless paper printing pockets I'm already down 6.2% and feeling the pain!