Italy had a good bond auction, probably uncle Ben buying most of their ^(&)*
Oil above 90 is good, no deflation.
And the futures are up.
Same technical levels apply, any breach will cause a fast exit by the big boys
be back later to update charts
Friday, November 11, 2011
Follow the leader
On November ninth something significant happened in Europe, stock markets crashed, but what caused it? Was it fear of dominoes falling in Europe (PIIGS), not really, the entire world knows about the debt problems of Portugal, Ireland, Italy Greece and Spain; so why the big reaction in the bond market and stock sell off? I believe the issue was simply, the torch of the country that was most on fire was passed from Greece to Italy (Italy is much larger and much more important to the eurozone). The important news out of Italy was not of the resignation of Silvio Burlesconi but the Italian bond yield spiked up over 7 percent, on that day (no confidence). Its hard for the country to pay 7% when they are broke.
I also believe that market participants are starting to realize that the European leaders, the politicians do not know what they are doing or they cant get together on a plan. The other possibility is, they do not recognize how large the debt problem really is, and because of this they will not be able to come up with a big enough money pot, if you will to solve the problem. Finally a feeling that if policies which include austerity measures be implemented it would make a bad problem worse (Austerity measures only lower tax revenues).
As far as I'm concerned the banks, investment houses and their greed, along with politicians who don't know what they're doing (or on gravy train) and lax central bank policy on interest rates CAUSED THIS ENTIRE MESS.
Does anybody remember what wall street did with all the bailout money, they bought expensive desks and tables and carpets and give themselves nice parties and trips to the Bahamas and gigantic bonuses at Christmas time. When did you ever fail in your business (or anything) and give yourself or someone gave you a nice bonus at the end of the year?
WHAT DEMOCRACY! Is our government or that of Europe’s democratic governments going to have Bastille day so to speak and hold these greedy SOB’s accountable. OweBama who ran on this notion among others, bring wall street and main street closer together, all election talk. Remember when he went to NYC he was supposed to scold the Banksters instead he went there and had an expensive meal rumored to be about a hundred K and went back to Washington with his PIMP DADDY SMILE!
Our elected officials will never hold the bankers responsible for what they did and I'll tell you why, the big banks and the investment houses wield immense power over the politicians far more than the voting public, they do this through a legalized bribing mechanism which they call this lobbying. The politicians get all kinds of financial and logistical support from the financial institutions. What the banks want done, will get done just take a look at that story I posted about MF global, the government is legalizing stealing from clients. The joke on wall street is, that they are in a casino in which they can’t lose because the investment houses were given federal insurance after 08 (Bank like status). This allows big investment houses and banks to take on as much risk as they want without fear of loss. The insurance allows for eventual socialization of their losses through bailouts. The Banksters rule this country not you or I, so know that and “act accordingly’ (Frank Costello, the departed).
Bottom line it for you: We need to see either forgiving the debt (wipe out all derivative losses, ain’t gonna happen) or a multi-trillion dollar QE program that is as aggressive as the cancer and we’ll be OK, but for the inflation (No one wants deflation). But if we don’t get either of those two CASH will be king, sell all assets. Better to make no money than to lose money.
I don’t know whats going to happen, but I do know heads they win tails you lose, so follow the banks. They control everything. Thomas Jefferson predicted all this many, many years ago.
I leave you with this
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."~Thomas Jefferson
I also believe that market participants are starting to realize that the European leaders, the politicians do not know what they are doing or they cant get together on a plan. The other possibility is, they do not recognize how large the debt problem really is, and because of this they will not be able to come up with a big enough money pot, if you will to solve the problem. Finally a feeling that if policies which include austerity measures be implemented it would make a bad problem worse (Austerity measures only lower tax revenues).
As far as I'm concerned the banks, investment houses and their greed, along with politicians who don't know what they're doing (or on gravy train) and lax central bank policy on interest rates CAUSED THIS ENTIRE MESS.
Does anybody remember what wall street did with all the bailout money, they bought expensive desks and tables and carpets and give themselves nice parties and trips to the Bahamas and gigantic bonuses at Christmas time. When did you ever fail in your business (or anything) and give yourself or someone gave you a nice bonus at the end of the year?
WHAT DEMOCRACY! Is our government or that of Europe’s democratic governments going to have Bastille day so to speak and hold these greedy SOB’s accountable. OweBama who ran on this notion among others, bring wall street and main street closer together, all election talk. Remember when he went to NYC he was supposed to scold the Banksters instead he went there and had an expensive meal rumored to be about a hundred K and went back to Washington with his PIMP DADDY SMILE!
Our elected officials will never hold the bankers responsible for what they did and I'll tell you why, the big banks and the investment houses wield immense power over the politicians far more than the voting public, they do this through a legalized bribing mechanism which they call this lobbying. The politicians get all kinds of financial and logistical support from the financial institutions. What the banks want done, will get done just take a look at that story I posted about MF global, the government is legalizing stealing from clients. The joke on wall street is, that they are in a casino in which they can’t lose because the investment houses were given federal insurance after 08 (Bank like status). This allows big investment houses and banks to take on as much risk as they want without fear of loss. The insurance allows for eventual socialization of their losses through bailouts. The Banksters rule this country not you or I, so know that and “act accordingly’ (Frank Costello, the departed).
Bottom line it for you: We need to see either forgiving the debt (wipe out all derivative losses, ain’t gonna happen) or a multi-trillion dollar QE program that is as aggressive as the cancer and we’ll be OK, but for the inflation (No one wants deflation). But if we don’t get either of those two CASH will be king, sell all assets. Better to make no money than to lose money.
I don’t know whats going to happen, but I do know heads they win tails you lose, so follow the banks. They control everything. Thomas Jefferson predicted all this many, many years ago.
I leave you with this
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."~Thomas Jefferson
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Whiplash
Markets need to hold key levels or look out below!
You see that little red spike that is a bullish hammer, think its just coincidence it occurred right at the upper band of that channel, think again. Computers and technicians are trading if for some reason that breaks we are headed to 165.
Silver also had a reversal day and printed a smaller hammer than gold, down big early and mid day came back. It need to hold or next level is 31.25 then 30. (using SLV)
SPX had a nice gap up that was sold off hard, the MACD is still over bought and rolling over.
Unless there is some good news (hail Mary type) the dominoes will fall (PIIGS) and then spread here like ebola. Read "European Banking System In Peril"
"Rolla Coastah"
The selling yesterday maybe an over exaggeration due to the news of the italian prime minister stepping down. This really should have come as no surprise as greece is prime minister had recently resigned why would this shock the markets. Everyone knows the PIIGS are in trouble and on the verge of default. So what is all the selling about? I think the point is that people are finally starting to realize that the problem is so massive europe may not be able to find or may not print enough money, all this beating around the bush about how bad things really are, is leading to investor uncertainty.
As I have written about before, they should just forgive all the derivative debt that everyone on their balance sheets, come clean if you will and start over! But they will never do that they will just print more money will ultimately lead to hyperinflation. Many economists argue that we already have a lot of inflation, look at gold, oil, healthcare, education, all have risen dramatically with respect to household income.
O to the futures and charts, after the 46 point drubbing the SPX took yesterday ,the futures are up 16.4, crude oil is up a 1.23 to 97.82 and if anybody is telling you that we are headed for a deflationary environment they must be insane, just take a look at the oil price.Silver is down 30 cents and gold is down 18.30
Looking at the S&P 500 chart it shows that we are at critical support levels 1229 where the recent break out started, and then stalled at the 200 day moving average (red line)
The advance decline line has also stopped at the top end of its range in the continuation sideways pattern. A break out above 10,600 would be extremely bullish. The mcclellan oscillator is neutral.
Now looking at the precious metal charts using SLV for example only we see the chart shows that had a false break out which stalled at the 50 day moving average and we are the right now at support levels. A break through the lower point will take us down to 31.20. The ugly looking bull flag is still intact.
Now lets look at gold, gold is still in a powerful secular bull move well above its rising 150dma and the short-term trend is still bullish as it is still above it's rising trendline support is a 170, again I'm using GLD for demonstration only.
Looking at the dollar index: chart of the dollar index seems to be breaking upwards as it sounds support at the 150 day moving average how to big days up printed a bull flag this break out should end at 79.20 or less. While there in eurozone disturbance the dollar will catch a bid and the PM's will be suppressed. I am still holding my targets from earlier this week.
I continue to question the usefulness of technical analysis in a manipulated markets, but what tools are left for the average investor.Trying to make sense of insanity is INSANITY no?
As I have written about before, they should just forgive all the derivative debt that everyone on their balance sheets, come clean if you will and start over! But they will never do that they will just print more money will ultimately lead to hyperinflation. Many economists argue that we already have a lot of inflation, look at gold, oil, healthcare, education, all have risen dramatically with respect to household income.
O to the futures and charts, after the 46 point drubbing the SPX took yesterday ,the futures are up 16.4, crude oil is up a 1.23 to 97.82 and if anybody is telling you that we are headed for a deflationary environment they must be insane, just take a look at the oil price.Silver is down 30 cents and gold is down 18.30
Looking at the S&P 500 chart it shows that we are at critical support levels 1229 where the recent break out started, and then stalled at the 200 day moving average (red line)
The advance decline line has also stopped at the top end of its range in the continuation sideways pattern. A break out above 10,600 would be extremely bullish. The mcclellan oscillator is neutral.
Now looking at the precious metal charts using SLV for example only we see the chart shows that had a false break out which stalled at the 50 day moving average and we are the right now at support levels. A break through the lower point will take us down to 31.20. The ugly looking bull flag is still intact.
Now lets look at gold, gold is still in a powerful secular bull move well above its rising 150dma and the short-term trend is still bullish as it is still above it's rising trendline support is a 170, again I'm using GLD for demonstration only.
Looking at the dollar index: chart of the dollar index seems to be breaking upwards as it sounds support at the 150 day moving average how to big days up printed a bull flag this break out should end at 79.20 or less. While there in eurozone disturbance the dollar will catch a bid and the PM's will be suppressed. I am still holding my targets from earlier this week.
I continue to question the usefulness of technical analysis in a manipulated markets, but what tools are left for the average investor.Trying to make sense of insanity is INSANITY no?
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Watchlist: Only on QE news out of Europe or US
Just food for thought
PM Update
Its like watching the three stooges, i'm talking about the Greek fiasco. Pappa Dre (also known as Papandreou) gets slapped on the head by Sarkozy and Merckel and is now basically taken to the woodshed. Marketwatch is reporting that Pappa Dre is going to step down. “The prime minister said that this government is going to pass on power to another government, which he will not lead,” an unnamed official who was in the meeting told the paper. Earlier reports had said a new government could be led by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos. On Saturday, Papandreou briefed Papoulias on his plan for a multi-party government that would implement the rescue package devised by European leaders late last month, the Journal said.
As I have said before derivatives and massive debt is the cancer they are trying to treat with penicillin. Austerity measures would have be an utter disaster. Applying austerity measures in Greece would just lower capital utilisation and productivity and reduce tax revenues thus making it harder for government and its municipalities to balance their books. Debt levels must be inflated away or written off (also read post on Financial Repression).
The gold chart is absolutely gorgeous we will be making news highs. Above the 20dma, it never broke its long-term up trend and is breaking out again, again the news and the COT's are bullish.
As I have said before derivatives and massive debt is the cancer they are trying to treat with penicillin. Austerity measures would have be an utter disaster. Applying austerity measures in Greece would just lower capital utilisation and productivity and reduce tax revenues thus making it harder for government and its municipalities to balance their books. Debt levels must be inflated away or written off (also read post on Financial Repression).
So more QE is coming and that should be good for most asset classes.
Looking at the chart, we had massive gap down (the deflation scare), went sideways, broke out (filled the gap) and we also have tested that break-out (referendum scare that got bitch slapped). And we are back to the upper end of that range (somewhat ugly bull flag). But the news is good we have an extremely bullish COT report low level of commercial shorts to large and small specs.
I'm using GLD and SLV only for demonstration purposes. Buy the metal, the paper will be inflated away as they kick the can further down the road.
Short-term target for silver, 40 in 2 weeks or less, the faster it takes out 35.50 the faster we get there.
Short-term target for gold, 1900 in 2 weeks or less, probably less.
Caveat: The bozos in Europe can't get together and make a deal happen.
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