Owe-Bama Declares War On Oil Traders

This is more of the same BS from Owe:

• ( RTR ) 04/21 02:30PM OBAMA SAYS HAS ASKED ATTORNEY GENERAL TO CREATE TEAM TO "ROOT OUT" FRAUD, MANIPULATION IN OIL MARKETS THAT COULD HIT GAS PRICES
• ( RTR ) 04/21 02:31PM OBAMA, IN PREPARED REMARKS, SAYS TEAM'S FOCUS WILL INCLUDE OIL MARKET TRADERS AND SPECULATORS
• ( RTR ) 04/21 02:31PM OBAMA SAYS WILL MAKE SURE THAT NO ONE IN OIL MARKET IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR THEIR OWN SHORT-TERM GAIN

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BP, TOT, Shell, DB and Societe General founded the Intercontinental Exchange in 2000. ICE is an online commodities and futures marketplace. It is outside the US and operates free from the constraints of US laws. The exchange was set up to facilitate ”dark pool” trading in the commodities markets. Billions of dollars are being placed on oil futures contracts at the ICE and the beauty of this scam is that they never take delivery.

Of course there is manipulation in Oil (thats how it was set up)  but its hilarious they want to talk about it now. They give the big banks  billions in free paper, what do you think they are going to do with it, put it under the mattress? STOP giving them money. Think about it they are using our tax dollars, bailout money, and the POMO funds to then bid up everything, all the stuff we use.


A week ago Owe-bama was telling people to buy more fuel efficient cars and get rid of gas guzzlers...now he wants to root out fraud and corruption in the oil markets...why didn't he attack fraud and corruption in the sub-prime, maybe because of all the former banksters now in Washington. They just brushed trillions under the rug. 


Everyone knows this goes on in many other markets as well, but since Oil is now on everyones radar they bring it up. I maybe naive in saying oil manipulation probably effects price 20 bucks a barrel at this point (in terms of price swings) if that. The main problem is the inflation caused by government policies, printing money, deficits and runaway spending. Seen the dollar chart lately. C'MON  MAN!

World Fleeing the US Dollar

Members of the International Monetary Fund emerged from their huddle in Washington last weekend resolved to keep every option open to slow the flood of dollars pouring into their countries, including capital controls. That's a dangerous game, given the need for investment to drive economic development. But it's also increasingly typical of the world's reaction to America's mismanagement of the dollar and its eroding financial leadership.

The dollar is the world's reserve currency, and as such the Federal Reserve is the closest thing we have to a global central bank. Yet for at least a decade, and especially since late 2008, the Fed has operated as if its only concern is the U.S. domestic economy.

The Fed's relentlessly easy monetary policy combined with Congress's reckless spending have driven investors out of the United States and into Asia, South America and elsewhere in search of higher returns and more sustainable growth. The IMF estimates that between the third quarter of 2009 and second quarter of 2010, Turkey saw a 6.9% inflow in capital as a percentage of GDP, South Africa 6.6%, Thailand 5%, and so on.

This incoming wall of money puts the central bankers in these countries in a bind. If they do nothing, the result can be asset bubbles and inflation. Brazil (6.3%) and China (5.4% officially but no doubt higher in fact) are both enduring bursts of inflation, as are many other countries. These nations can raise interest rates or let their own currencies appreciate, at the risk of slower economic growth. Rather than endure that adjustment, many countries are resorting to capital controls and other administrative measures to try to stop the inflow.

Original Source

Silver Rocket

WOW! Is this unreal or what. I am loving this. The one time I wasn't freaking greedy this sucker just keeps Partying like its 1999. Silver has truly gone shall I say PARABOLIC. So what does this mean. Like I have been telling friends and family. If you want the metal buy in tranches over time, it isn't too late. See Checklist.

I know, I know i write the same thing everyday. I'll stop writing this when people stop asking me when to buy, or how am I so sure about Silver when the guys on CNBC said this or that. For all those doubting this rally, whats it going to take?

I guess they'll be asking me the same questions later this year when its over 80/oz.

 

long AGQ (unfortunately not all in)

Jeff Gundlach's Complete Guide To The Inevitable American Default

Legendary bond investor Jeff Gundlach gave a presentation last summer saying a U.S. debt default was inevitable.

Nine months later, S&P is leaning toward the same conclusion.

Gundlach identified three ways out of the debt crisis: Cut, print or default. But cutting alone rarely works. Printing is limited when foreigners own your debt. As for the last option, he says "some type of polite default, at a minimum, will happen."

link

China To Trim USD Reserves

PBOC governor says foreign reserves excessive. The "PBOC" of course is the People's Bank of China, or China's Federal Reserve, if you will. In so many words, this fine gentleman is telling us that China is going to accelerate its U.S. dollar selling:

Foreign exchange reserves have exceeded our country's rational demand, and too much accumulation has caused excessive liquidity in our markets, adding to the pressure of the central bank's sterilization," Zhou was quoted by the official Shanghai Securities News as saying "The State Council has required a cut in excessive accumulation and good management of the funds accumulated, including diversification of investments," Zhou was quoted as telling a forum at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

lINK

S&P 500 Recap

If it can forcefully clear that 1345-50 level it will go up a hundred twenty points or so.

Futures are up 8 points this morning on the back of GE earnings. Big move, big gap up day yesterday.  Excellent breadth for the Index there were 424 components advancing and 55 components declining. On the NYSE 3,150 issues were traded with 2,527 advancing issues and 516 retreating issues, a ratio of 4.9 to one advancing. There were 198 new highs and 16 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 88 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 22 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -178.

Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 3.34 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.75 and the final tick was 902. The five day average of TRIN is 1.55 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.31. The NYSE Composite Index gained 1.51% today while the SPX gained 1.33%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -.61% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 3 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 18 sessions ended on a positive tick, 4 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 106.6% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 116.7% of the last 10 day average and 114% of the previous day’s volume.

Once again great breadth statistics but the ten day average of Net Advancing is still solidly below zero and advancing volume did not keep pace with advancing issues.

Volume was a bit higher than Tuesday's but there really isn't much to see on the intraday volume pattern; volume was heavy at the open with the large gap but volume was mild the rest of the session as the indices just basically hung onto the overnight gains. 

Yesterday's big gainers were Energy, Industrials and tech stocks. Financials, Health related and staples underperformed.  

Hitting the Target on Gold: Silver Rockets Higher

Just keep going higher host of fundamental reasons pushing it higher but this is just nuts (the speed of the ascent).  Next stop 50. Where is my pullback so I can reload?  Where is the JPMorgue's Blythe, hiding in the vault with the Silver, err, I mean aluminum; I suppose. No way they let this get over 50 without a fight. 



From Harvey, regarding yesterday's raid, "Their object of interest was really silver as the losses to JPMorgan must be exorbitant by now. I guess they are lucky to have the Fed supply lots of Federal Reserve Notes as collateral to back up all of their losses".

" The estimated volume at the silver comex was huge at 127,674. The confirmed volume yesterday was equally big at 129,203. To give you the size in oz that this represents, a volume of 129,203 equates to 645 million oz of silver or 92% of annual global silver production".

I have no position in Gold, but if you see my previous post I told you we'd get to 1520-1540 by May 2011

Dollar decline is accelerating down almost 2% in the two days, it was only down 0.7% against other currencies for the entire 2010 year. This is getting scary.

There are rumors that the Chinese will re-value their currency over the weekend and this should accelerate the dollar decline and increase volatility leading up to the event as the news travels.

In addition, more countries are doing bilateral trade deals in each others currencies with increasing frequency. These include bilateral agreements between Russia and China, China and Brazil, Germany and Russia and also between India and Iran. World dollar transaction use is still high at 84.9% but in a declining trend.

SILVER over 46

10 plus years of US fiscal laxity, 


10 plus years of tax cuts, 


10 plus years of spending increases,


"there are just some things money can't buy"




QE to Infinity PRICELESS!

Pretty impressive what hyperinflation can do, eh?

Put on your seat belts and get ready for the take off. The way the bozos are driving the bus in Washington we could be in hyperinflation land in 3-4 years as well. I do sincerely hope, that they get it before its too out of control.

Government Cash Handouts Now Top Tax Revenues

Gee I thought Tim and Ben and Owebee Wan said things are much better now and that the economy is on firmer footing. I GUESS NOT!

U.S. households are now getting more in cash handouts from the government than they are paying in taxes for the first time since the Great Depression.

Households received $2.3 trillion in some kind of government support in 2010. That includes expanded unemployment benefits, as well as payments for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and stimulus spending, among other things.

But that’s more than the $2.2 trillion households paid in taxes, an amount that has slumped due to the recession, according to an analysis by the Fiscal Times.

And the handouts from the government have been growing. Government cash handouts account for a whopping 79% of household growth since 2007, even as household tax payments have fallen by $312 billion.

That is a tough feeding trough to take away from voters.

Link

Oil rallies above $124 on U.S. draw, dollar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rallied 3 percent on Wednesday as U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the first time in seven weeks and the dollar weakened further, fueling investor appetite for riskier assets.

The oil rally extended gains for a second day and both Brent and U.S. crude prices were racing back up toward 2011 highs.

ICE Brent crude for June delivery rose $2.74 to $124.07 a barrel by 12:10 p.m. EDT (1610 GMT) after surging to an intraday high of $124.23. Brent hit a 32-month high above $127 a barrel on April 11, but concerns about high prices stifling fuel demand had since cut them back.

U.S. June crude gained $3.25 to 111.53, just below its session high of $111.66.

U.S. crude inventories fell 2.32 million barrels last week, bucking average analyst forecasts in a Reuters poll for a 1.1 million barrel increase. It was the first drawdown since the week to February 25

Link

Expect More Volatility In Silver

I have to laugh, there is a lot of excitement now about Silver now. The hits on my blog have doubled today. I guess people are looking for top callers or those who have some sort of advice on what to do now. I missed the Silver train etc etc.

We have a long, long way to go people and I believe we will get better entry points to load the truck up this summer, especially in the paper market. In the PM's, I don't think we ever get to 40 again this year.

So I'm telling my friends and family to save and buy what ever Physical Silver you can get your hands on and accumulate over time.

See checklist for how to keep riding this bull, don't let your fears (or Blythe) scare you out of this market.

Silver Raid Has Begun

If you are trading the paper, you are better off with the AGQ as opposed to the SLV because quite frankly you have no idea if it has any Silver in it or not. If you trust Jamie Dimon and his cohorts you are playing with fire. I have been taking profits all along, now am left with 25% position am gonna let it ride. We will be getting many more raids from now until next Tuesday or Wednesday, Silver is very overbought, I hate that term. But I am now Giddy and Nervous all at the same time. Its a strange feeling i havent had since I was holding JDSU all the way up (and then all the way down, back in 99-2000) 

 I also picked up some ZSL at 15.80. I am going to use that as a trading vehicle at extremes like today. If you are quick you can protect your Silver gains and make some Fiat on the way down well all the while know full well that Silver will be over 80 by year end. 

Eurozone Crisis: Links

French union warns of discontent at ‘euro pact’

The CGT has told European governments they risk sparking widespread discontent if they push ahead with the Franco-German ‘pact for the euro’ - Apr 19 2011

Eurozone PMI points to sustained recovery

The area is on track for a sustained economic recovery, according to a closely watched survey, but at the cost of a widening gulf between its core and the periphery - Apr 19 2011

China’s €9bn stake in Spain lost in translation

There are lessons for both sides in the embarrassing episode in which Madrid had to confess its communication ‘error’ after China Investment Corp denied a firm plan to invest - Apr 19 2011

Rise of Finnish party threatens bail-outs

A populist anti-euro party demands changes to the proposed bail-out for Portugal after making big gains in the Finnish general election, increasing doubts over tackling eurozone debt - Apr 18 2011

Frustrated Finns throw off staid image

The election success of the populist True Finns party shocks Finland, with the party’s share up from 4 to 19 per cent, threatening to upset the country’s stance on Europe - Apr 18 2011

   Greek bond fears

As the eurozone approaches the first anniversary of the bail-out of Greece, fears of a debt restructuring are intensifying. It was seven years from the start of the Latin American crisis in the 1980s to the first wave of restructuring. Could Europe go even faster? 

RES: Target reached in pre-market 26.10

RES just hit my target of 26 in the premarket, gives me a 19% gain in about a weeks time, going to take half off the table. Pigs get slaughtered. I think next stop is 30. Oil will go much higher as dollar is in big trouble. 

Dollar getting hammered

click to enlarge

The white arrow shows a fresh new low. The red line is where were it was at the height of the 08 crisis. It is clear that QE will continue, the rest of the world has no faith that congress will get its house in order, Owebama and Geitner down playing debt issues. Keep buying the PM's and commodities.

AGQ (Silver)

A thing of beauty! Be prepared for a severe pullback this week.

Silver and Gold Update

Both Silver and Gold were raided yesterday (unsuccessfully) mercifully there was less volatility than the day before but the volume was huge. Gold Hit over 1500 a couple of times and was pelted down each time settled at 1497. As for Silver, WOW. When I said we'd see 45 this week I didnt think it would be Wednesday. One more WOW!

This has just been incredible. We desperately need a pullback but the way things look there is just too much upward pressure. Too many shorts and physical demand (and fundamentals). Its just too perfect. So what is the plan. I have a half position in AGQ left, the closer the PM gets to 45 I will reduce to 25% and let the rest ride. Try to buy back at 43. 

I'm not trading the GLD or DGP, so no comment on that, I have my hands full with the AGQ blasting off to the stars.

Comex action, from Harvey Organ's Blog:

The estimated volume today at the silver comex was a monstrous 107,782 with minor switches.
Now ladies and gentlemen: please pay note of this next piece of data...the confirmed volume at the silver comex yesterday came in at 185,250. In ounces, this is represented by 925 million oz or 132% of annual silver production. And the comex is not the biggest silver bourse which belongs to London England (LBMA).

Gold had a strong day so some of the weaker banks threw in the towel. The front delivery month of April saw the OI rise by 13 contracts even though we had 7 deliveries. Thus we have gained some gold ounces standing and we had zero cash settlements today. The next delivery month of June which is the second biggest delivery month of the year for gold saw its OI rise from 363,700 to 368,030. It seems that this is where many investors piled into these past two days. The estimated volume at the gold comex today was a rather subdued 118,735. I guess we came into a conflict as the many buyers were coming in contact with a number of short covering (additional buying) and thus we had a lack of sellers. 

This is becoming very ominous for our banking cartel. Yesterday, the confirmed volume at the gold comex was an astounding 215,412 when you consider that we had no switches. The banking cartel had orchestrated a raid yesterday and much to their surprise they were greeted with the S and P, USA debt downgrade. As I stated yesterday, the bankers supplied the unbacked paper which was readily gobbled up by eager investors wishing to enter the gold market. Today was not a good day for the gold bears.

OweBama Running on Fumes

If you are long commodities and metals like I am you are gonna love this. It's business as usual folks, QE will continue after it ends. QE is dead, long live QE (to infinity). 




That’s more like it, exclaim the bulls. A batch of strong US earnings reports has revived investors’ hopes that the global economic climate remains conducive to improving corporate performance, boosting risk appetite after the brief wobble delivered by S&P’s warning on US debt.

The FTSE All-World equity index is up 1.1 per cent, commodities and “growth” currencies are rallying, while perceived havens such as the yen and core bonds are under pressure.

As the president addressed a domestic audience to sell his deficit plan, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, made three appearances on financial television programmes to talk up the creditworthiness of the US.

Mr Geithner said there was “no risk” that the US’s triple A credit rating would be downgraded, in contrast to S&P’s assessment in a note on Monday that implied a one-in-three chance of a downgrade as it switched the outlook for the country’s debt from “stable” to “negative”.

“I think if you listen carefully, the prospects of [a deal] are better today than they’ve been in a long period of time, because people are saying that this is important to do for the economy and we have to start now,” he said.

Mr Geithner’s message was buoyed by Tokyo’s reaction to the S&P move, with a senior official in Japan – the second largest foreign holder of US sovereign debt – saying Treasuries remained “attractive”.

The Chinese government, the top foreign holder of US debt, said: “We hope the US government will take responsible policies and measures to safeguard investors’ interests.”

Link to original source

Campaign For Liberty

The JPMorgue Silver Bunker

Very funny video uploaded by silverswan

have a good laugh

So much for dollar rally

 My Favorite energy stock, now 1.30 from my target.

Price is walking the talk. Forget about all the fiscal responsibility, debt reduction yadda yadda yadda noise we heard yesterday. back to business as usual today. Silver and gold new highs (all time), everything else commodity related is up as well and as for the dollar (not so good)

All commodity related stocks are getting bid up today, so I guess risk is back on!

EUR Bearish Cross

This recent bull move (almost 15%) resulted from a sense that Europe is on the mend, they got to "the Greeks" on time (bailout) and austerity measures and cracking down on inflation 

German government sources told Reuters in Berlin that they did not believe Greece, which sealed a 110 billion euro ($157.7 billion) bailout from the EU and IMF last year, would make it through the summer without restructuring.

Euro is clinging to the 20dma, the MACD has signaled a turn, look for 139.5 in the near future. 


The Euro Debt Crisis will emerge, things aren't all better, the European union will be tested. Lets see if they stick together. 


This is the one thing that could possibly save the dollar from falling off a cliff. 

SILVER UPDATE

Silver prices keep pushing higher what more is there to say. I said a raid was imminent Monday through Wed and we got a huge one on Monday. And unless you are an expert trader you probably were just like a deer in headlights. The paper action was just to fast and scary. I for one am glad i missed it (I stink at day trading). 

So where do we go from higher? Higher of course. Just review the checklist if you are nervous and buy the dips. I think we go to 45 some point this week and I expect volatility, hopefully  not like yesterday. Staying the course not adding until we get a substantial pullback.

COMEX report Courtesy of Harvey:
"The total silver comex fell by 2382 contracts in contrast to gold, as the new reading for today came in at 146,270 from Friday's level of 148,652. Please remember that silver blasted to $43.05 by 4 pm Friday. Thus when you see a huge rise in silver and a drop in OI you can bet the farm that many bankers have sought psychiatric help in dealing with the meteoric rise in silver". 

"The estimated volume today was so huge and defies logic. It came in at 151,999 to represent a total of 760 million oz of silver!! This is approximately 108% of annual global silver supply. The confirmed volume for Friday, the day the silver rocket blasted off for unknown northernly destinations, came in at a very high 132,545 contracts". ~ 

S&P 500 Recap

Futures are flat this morning, yesterday's sell-off on the S&P downgrade of US debt was a bogus non-event but the market sold off. I suspect this was a short-lived phenomenon as OWEbama has downplayed it and it will be the same ole same ole soon enough. QE3 (to infinity). The breadth was poor and volume was heavy in am sell-off and light in the buying stage yesterday. Since i am no longer short odds are this market will crash. Sometimes it is as simple as that.

Bonds have been rallying of late, I wonder who is buying? Its not  China, Japan, India,  not Billy G I wonder who it could be?  

Before you get excited about the dollar catching a bid remember who is in office and who is at the Fed. OWEbama already said fogedda boud it to the debt rating agency. In a couple of days it will be business as usual. BTW the yellow line is where the UUP was at the worst point in the 08 financial crisis, we are well below that now. 

Americans Shun Cheapest Homes in 40 Years as Owning Loses Appeal

Victoria Pauli signed a one-year lease last week to stay in her rental home in Fair Oaks, California. She had considered buying in the area, where property prices have slumped 57 percent since a 2005 peak.

In the end, she decided it wasn’t worth it.

“I know people who have watched their home values get cut in half, and I know people who are losing their homes,” said Pauli, 31, who works as a property manager for a real estate company. “It’s part of the American dream to want to own your own home, and I used to feel that way, but now I tell myself: Be careful what you wish for.”

The most affordable real estate in a generation is failing to lure buyers as Americans like Pauli sour on the idea of home ownership. At the end of 2010, the fourth year of the housing collapse, the share of people who said a home was a safe investment dropped to 64 percent from 70 percent in the first quarter. The December figure was the lowest in a survey that goes back to 2003, when it was 83 percent.

Link to full article

Total US Debt Now Officially Above The Ceiling

A quick look at today's just released total debt to the penny from the Treasury may crimp the artificial smile of even such die hard administration sycophants as Moodys. Why: because the total debt, as we predicted when we observed last week's 30 Year auction, is now at $14,305,336,580,992.11. This is a problem because as anyone who rails against the broken US fiscal apparatus should be able to tell you, the debt ceiling is $14.294 trillion. In other words we have now officially breached the debt ceiling by $11 billion. So why has the US not filed a notice of default yet? Because the actual debt that matters for legal purposes is the debt "subject to the limit", which is $52 billion less than the total debt primarily due to $10 billion held at the Federal Financing Bank, and $41 billion in unamortized discount: a number which fluctuates in time depending on how much over or under par bonds are issued, but which ultimately will be zero at maturity of all debt (haha). In other words, as of today, the US Treasury has dry powder for just another $41 billion in issuance, or just over your average 5 Year auction. This can be seen best on the following chart from the Treasury where the total debt line has just passed the limit.


Zerohedge.com

OweBama Down Plays S&P Call

This just makes me wanna back up the truck and buy more Silver:

"The Obama administration moved swiftly Monday to downplay ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgrade of its U.S. credit outlook, calling the decision a political judgment that should not be taken too seriously. "

The timing of S&P's announcement was unwelcome for the White House, coming just as President Obama tried to regain the initiative on the deficit debate in Washington.

Last week Obama laid out his plan to reduce the budget deficit by $4 trillion over 12 years, trying to give markets confidence that he was serious about tackling U.S. fiscal woes.

House Republican leader Eric Cantor on Monday called the S&P downgrade "a wake-up call" against those seeking to "blindly increase" the U.S. debt limit.

LINK

On S&P Downgrade

"Even though it is sort of like downgrading the Titanic’s chances of making it across the Atlantic, at least they are ahead of Moody’s and Fitch".  ~ Michael Pento


"Remember S&P had investment grade, AAA, ratings on countless mortgage-backed securities right up until the moment the paper became worthless. Amazingly, the rating agencies somehow maintained their status, and their ability to move markets, after the dust settled". ~ Peter Schiff


"The only thing more ridiculous than S&P’s too little too late semi-downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt was the market’s severe reaction to the announcement. Has S&P really added anything to the debate that wasn’t already widely known"?~ Peter Schiff

What a day for Silver

On occasion the God smiles on me! Today was such a day. I was away from the TV and computer and I just have to say WOW (chart volatility).


First of all the guys whose blogs I read everyday have been saying this for months now. Heck I wrote about it in October and I was late to the party. IS THIS NEW INFORMATION by the S&P. This isn't news, and whats even more ridiculous is the way the market sold off and all the jabbering on CNBC. 


Anyway, what I think is happening in the first spike up is the news of the downgrade of US debt to negative, shorts cover people go long and then the spike down is precipitated by the fear that maybe the downgrade will bring the US to their senses and the Govt will stop the QE and cut back spending. So those folks run from the PM's. Then sanity prevails and they realize that this crack addicted  may need to be weaned off and if they correct to  quickly it'll lead to a depression  and the S&P stated that it is unsure the the government will get its fiscal house in order. So hearing that, people run back out and buy the paper they sold. C' MON MAN!


Edit: the dollar ETF is up .84% and silver is up .88% and gold up .5%. Dead cat bounce in USD. all commodities have sold off hard, materials, ag (seeds fertilizer), except for the DBA which is up a bit. 

S&P 500 Recap : final S&P daily recap

Good morning, I am going to stop the daily recap of the S&P because this has been an exercise in futility for me. I give up. As I have been saying for months now the technicals do not matter for now. One day they will again. 

For now, there is nothing of value in reviewing and writing in-actionable material.

S&P futures are down 9 points so far this morning as People's Bank of China announced that the deposit reserve ratio for most banks would be raised -- the fourth reserve increase this year. Another anti-inflation move by China. 

The Friday options expiration session began without a significant gap but quickly moved higher a couple of points before giving it back and moving into negative ground. Then SPX quickly bounced almost seven points in less than fifteen minutes but this was a volatile quick moving morning session and the index gave those points back almost as quickly as it had gained them. Then things began to settle down just before 11:00 and the bulls took control. The index worked higher for a couple of hours before putting the high of the day on the chart at 1:00 pm. Afternoon trading was relatively sluggish as the index gave back almost four points but closed at two thirds of the intraday range. But it is worth noting that the Russell 2000 closed at the top of its intraday range and that would appear to be bullish.

S&P lost  0.64% but the internals were awful we should have lost a lot more. So once again the market continues to be quite resilient, undoubtedly buoyed by the Fed free money, nausea setting in. Not much more to report. Breadth and volume were weak and I expect more of the same. Price is now above the 50dma, who cares!

S&P: 373 components advancing and 102 components declining. NYSE: 3,152 issues were traded with 2,075 advancing issues and 968 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.14 to one advancing. There were 108 new highs and 14 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 73 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 18 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -194.

65.2% of the S&P issues are above their five day moving average, 44.6% are above their 10 day average, 53.2% are above their 20 day moving average, 60% are above their 50 day moving average, and 84.6% are above their 200 day moving average.

Consumer Staples, Basic materials, and Energy  were stand outs on Friday. 

Silver Raid Imminent

Only for those who are trading paper Silver (long AGQ, 50%): Silver hit a high of 43.4 in the overnight session and has since sold off, right on cue. 


 I don't have any inside information or have any contacts at the comex (you know who I am talking about) but what I do know is TA and it tells me we are very overbought. 

And calling a top is the hardest thing to do, and tops develop over time and prices can keep climbing for months after you think they should have topped technically or what have you and no one ever plays the bull market in anything, perfectly. You do the best you can.

 What I see technically is that after each pullback the speed and angle of upward trajectory is becoming acute (sharp/steep), the weekly stochastics are very over bought (so what) that makes me worry. Anecdotally, Silver was on Yahoo finance front page last week (sign post) and a lot of people I know are getting giddy and asking questions about Silver (not Gold). So is the Silver bull over, absolutely not! 

But nothing goes straight up and as I wrote last week, the raids will come Monday to Wednesday morning, its been a trend. They get a whole mess of free paper (money), then make a plan on weekends; so be careful early in the week. I have explained how I survive the raids. Last week I got lucky and Bought ZSL and that protected my profits and I had been taking small amounts off the table on every ballistic move up, and I re-load on the way down. It has been perfectly played but pretty damn close so far.

Please note: this does not apply to any PM holders. If you have the metal just hold on to the ride of your life. Buy on any dip. 

This week: Target 45

Where to buy on the way down: 42.25, 41.5, and 40.5 (40.5 would be a healthy correction to stage a move to 50)

Looking to be fully long at 250, first pullback should take us to 270. 

Metals Update

On Friday at the Comex closing time Gold price settled at $1485.30 for a gain of $13.60.  It continued its rise in the Globex gaining another dollar.

Silver finished the comex session at $42.57 gaining  57 cents, and then in the Globex, screamed higher through the 43 dollar level where it closed at $43.05. 

The JPMorgue was hammered all day by the PM longs. The total gold OI (open interest) added a remarkable 16,309 positions to its open interest rising to 528,213 from Thursday's level of 511,904. The June open interest rose to 356,182 from 348,804 (huge overall amount). The estimated volume at the gold comex was 168,704 which was again to say the least, huge.

The total silver comex open interest rose to 148,652 from Thursday's level of 145,065 scaring the living daylights out of the Banksters. They have tried countless times to shake longs loose for their silver but have failed each time.

The Banksters have another meeting scheduled for this weekend according to Harvey's post, we saw raids on Monday and Tuesday of last week and I expect more of the same starting overnight. Trade the paper hold the metal tight!

Secular Trends Positions Review

Took some more off the table on Friday, don't want to be too greedy. Silver is due for a 10% correction who knows when Blythe and the "coven" will attack next. AGQ's will correct more than 20% if and when that happens. I had written that if Silver holds 42 then we'll see 45 before we ever see 40 again, so the next stop is 45 and then 42.5-43 will be support as we push towards 50 by mid-May. Then the seasonal factors set in and after a correction we should go sideways until third week of August.

Got Stopped out of HAL last week for a 8% loss. 

Core holding in STP (seculartrends portfolio), multi-year move expected.

Added this @ 28.21, seems to be working out so far. Although i expect Crude to go much higher the dynamics are different than food and precious metals. People can fly less, car pool or drive less (cut consumption) or they will just pay more, the rest of the world except the oil rich countries pay more for oil maybe we get used to it here in the US. Wait and see. For now this is just a trade.

Added at 22.10, looks okay so far, 5% stop below purchase selling at 26 range.

Core holding, buy near 150, you may get another chance before June.

Just waiting for this one to explode higher, will add more on next dip below 20dma.  Target is 3.

Core STP holding, for anyone who missed the more to 42, NOW is the chance. We are right at the 150dma, next stop 39, then 42. Don't forget to put in a stop slightly below the new buy.

Core holding up about 5%, reported earnings that disappointed the street sold off a little. Great buying op right at the 150dma, Indian is a Secular bull market. This is a great company do you homework, don't get shaken out. 

Added at 19.25, above the 20dma, STP core holding. resistance at the 150 but it should clear it on the next attempt, not to late to get on board. See my post on Indian Infrastructure and as always do your own homework.