Wednesday, March 23, 2011

S&P 500 Recap and A Look Inside the Markets

 Good Morning. Futures are up 4 points. In the news  Reuters reported last night that the radiation from the yet to be controlled leaks from Japan’s nuclear reactors is entering the food supply. Number 1 reactor temperature was 394 degrees on 3:30 according to media outlets.  Most recent news reports indicate that the reactor temperature has reached over 400 degrees Celsius and that worker’s are unable to slow the heating.  At 600 degrees metal softens and it won’t be long after .that until there is a full out meltdown. The Egyptian exchange plunged after reopening after two months as expected. Yesterday morning Japan's Nikkei had surged +4.4% overnight. However, news of another earthquake, slow going at the Daiichi site, and concerns of a prolonged fight in Libya appeared to be keeping stock futures in check. We did not have any economic data to review before the open.

The session began without a significant gap. The high of the day was quickly put on the chart just seven minutes into trading but this was a low-volume narrow-range affair that crept lower throughout the day in a five wave pattern. The SPX closed near the lows.

Still time to short, if it breaks 2 percent over 1300, cover, very good risk reward.
For the SPX Index there were 144 components advancing and 337 components declining. On the NYSE 3,126 issues were traded with 1,290 advancing issues and 1,738 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.35 to one declining. There were 104 new highs and 9 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 68 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 21 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -156.

Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 2.08 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.67 and the final tick was -135. The five day average of TRIN is 1.77 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.46. The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.34% today while the SPX lost -0.36%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -23.46% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 5 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 21 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 81.16% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 75.4% of the last 10 day average and 73.4% of the previous day’s volume.

Declining volume was greater than declining issues and the ten day average of Net Advancing has quickly dipped back into negative territory. TRIN continues to call for a market bounce, so we have some conflicting signals.
Total tick for the day was 12,000 and the average tick for the day was 8. There were 24 ticks greater than 600 and 22 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000.

Today's volume was extremely light and left us with nothing meaningful for the intraday volume pattern. Looking at the Breadth Indicators we are finding things a bit more mixed tonight than last night, suggesting that we see another day or two of choppy narrow range trade as the market decides which way it will go. But as you know I think the next move is down. It's all about QE3 now and I'm not hearing anything yet. The 20dma is hanging on above the 50dma. One other thing you might want to note is that all the gains we are seeing in the S&P happen overnight and the intraday trade has been a loser despite all the gains in the S&P recently, yesterday was another example of this. Don't really know what to make of it. Its seems like the guys in the futures markets are pulling the strings.

Sector Performance:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +13%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +12%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +20%.
- Consumer Staples -- Outperformed the SPX by +23%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +46%.
- Health Care -- Outperformed the SPX by +43%.

Sectors weaker than the SPX for Tuesday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -15%.
- Industrials -- Underperformed the SPX by -44%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -42%.





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