I would have like to see a further sell off to 50dma but the futures are up big before the 8:30am economic data, we'll see if they hold. Strength comes on the back of a strong Asian and European session. Something about GM (what a rip off that is, our tax dollars save them only the bankers and the super rich to benefit from this. Total Bullshit. Capitalism?
Most of the major indices painted an inside day and a narrowest range in seven days. Such chart bars are often followed by large range days within a day or two, and quite frequently these bars are downward.
Today was also the third inside day of the last five sessions. This is not a frequent characteristic of a bottoming process.
The tick pattern today as well as yesterday also continues to suggest that we have more work to do on the downside. Continue to look for a short-term bounce, but a test of the 50 DMA seems likely, after this short lived rally. A successful test would be a bullish and match well with the upcoming seasonality which is also bullish.
This appears to be a tenuous time for the market; much technical damage has been done. But until the 50 DMA falls, it is good to keep in mind that when the market is driven down by news it can also reverse based on news, and the EUR/USD manipulation is playing havoc technically.
Breadth was more positive than might have been expected with the very neutral indices. But the advancing volume ratio was weaker than the advancing issues. One positive note that shouldn’t be overlooked is that the broad NYSE Composite Index outperformed the SPX.
Total tick for the day was 71,000 and the average tick for the day was 46. There were 56 ticks greater than 600 and 56 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and 4 ticks more extreme than -1000.
Once again, even with light volume today, clearly the volume spiked with every selling move. Looking at the nightly breadth indicators at first they appear quite mixed, as might be anticipated after a sluggish tight-range session. But let’s at least take notice of a few things. The Cumulative Volume Index moved higher; this isn’t bearish. The High Low Logic moved lower; this isn’t bearish. And the McClellan Summation Index remains in positive territory; this isn’t bearish. So before we get too bearish about the current market environment, let’s watch these indicators for a couple more days.
SPX Index there were 275 Advancers/211 Decliners. On the NYSE 3,133 issues were traded with 1,836 advancing issues and 1,213 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.51 to one advancing. There were 20 new highs and 19 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 204 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 49 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -301. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 1.14 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.32 and the final tick was 218. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.22% today while the SPX gained 0.02%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -9.04% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 7 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 84.9% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 86.8% of the last 10 day average and 80.5% of the previous day’s volume.
I increased my SLV, GLD, bought some uranium miners yesterday. Will hold existing small position in BGZ (SPX 3x short) and holding TBT.
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