Stock futures were posting solid gains in the early going as investor appetite for risk assets was returning amid rising hopes a solution to Ireland's banking crisis (Stronger EUR, weaker USD) as well as euphoria over the GM IPO.
The market bounce was a bit earlier than i anticipated but had taken most of my BGZ hedge off so for the swing trade I was positioned almost just right. A little too much cash than I would have liked but I'll take it. I added to my BGZ yesterday at 1195 on the SPX because I have little trust in this bounce. The index may well go higher but I had pegged the 1195 and 1202 area as the likely high for a bounce on this downtrend.
But it is always possible that the downtrend has ended. The internal action did not leave me feeling that the downtrend had reversed but this does happen sometimes on very shallow pullbacks so the door must be left open for the possibility that we now begin another leg higher. The technicals that were calling for a test of the 50 DMA may have been satisfied with the push to 1173.
It is vital to always be alert and ready to switch sides! Trade what you see, not what you think.
As for the $DXY, I think the 200wkma has proven to be very strong resistance and that should bode well for my commodity holdings. I added DBA at the open.
Friday is November options expiration and tends to be an up day (futures down slightly so far this am). The Monday following the November expiration is most often bearish; but most of the rest of the month tends to be bullish.
But it is always possible that the downtrend has ended. The internal action did not leave me feeling that the downtrend had reversed but this does happen sometimes on very shallow pullbacks so the door must be left open for the possibility that we now begin another leg higher. The technicals that were calling for a test of the 50 DMA may have been satisfied with the push to 1173.
It is vital to always be alert and ready to switch sides! Trade what you see, not what you think.
As for the $DXY, I think the 200wkma has proven to be very strong resistance and that should bode well for my commodity holdings. I added DBA at the open.
Friday is November options expiration and tends to be an up day (futures down slightly so far this am). The Monday following the November expiration is most often bearish; but most of the rest of the month tends to be bullish.
For the SPX Index there were 434 Advancers/52 Decliners. On the NYSE 3,130 issues were traded with 2,471 advancing issues and 595 retreating issues, a ratio of 4.15 to one advancing. There were 96 new highs and 12 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 157 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 47 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -321. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 7.44 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.56 and the final tick was 428. The NYSE Composite Index gained 1.75% today while the SPX gained 1.51%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 14.56% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 8 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 101.9% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 97.3% of the last 10 day average and 111% of the previous day’s volume.
Very strong breadth and the ratio of advancing volume was even stronger. The broad NYSE Composite Index outperformed the SPX and we closed on a strong final tick. But the ten day average of Net Advancing still suggests a downtrend.
Total tick for the day was 140,000 and the average tick for the day was 91. There were 44 ticks greater than 600 and 17 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and 2 ticks more extreme than -1000.
Intraday volume surged on the SPX move upward early in the session then volume tapered off the rest of the day. Some of the nightly breadth indicators look bullish tonight; the Cumulative Volume Index, the High Low Index, and the McClellan Oscillator moved bullishly.
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 7.44 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.56 and the final tick was 428. The NYSE Composite Index gained 1.75% today while the SPX gained 1.51%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 14.56% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 8 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 101.9% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 97.3% of the last 10 day average and 111% of the previous day’s volume.
Very strong breadth and the ratio of advancing volume was even stronger. The broad NYSE Composite Index outperformed the SPX and we closed on a strong final tick. But the ten day average of Net Advancing still suggests a downtrend.
Total tick for the day was 140,000 and the average tick for the day was 91. There were 44 ticks greater than 600 and 17 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and 2 ticks more extreme than -1000.
Intraday volume surged on the SPX move upward early in the session then volume tapered off the rest of the day. Some of the nightly breadth indicators look bullish tonight; the Cumulative Volume Index, the High Low Index, and the McClellan Oscillator moved bullishly.
No comments:
Post a Comment