JUST TOO BULLISH!
Change from last week:
Long-Term Average:
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.
Last Week's Results
Sentiment Survey
ResultsWeek ending 11/10/2010 Bullish
57.6%
ResultsWeek ending 11/10/2010 Bullish
57.6%up 9.3 Neutral 14.0%
14.0%down 8.0 Bearish 28.5%
28.5%down 1.3
Change from last week:
Bullish: +9.3
Neutral: -8.0
Bearish: -1.3
Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%
Bearish: 30%
Stock futures were pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as a result of concerns about the mounting debt problems in Ireland and expectations that China will continue to tighten rates. Futures sold heavily overnight but were quite a bit off their lows. There was no economic data to review before the open, but we received the University of Michigan's Confidence index at 9:55 am eastern.
A most interesting final session of the week began with about a five point gap lower. After working a bit lower for the first quarter hour the SPX tried to find a bottom and bounce about five points to put the high of the day on the chart at 9:58. Bulls attempted a brief come back about 15 minutes later before leaving for the weekend. Bears took the tape down sharply to put the low of the day on the chart at 1:00 pm. The rest of the session was choppy consolidation with the index closing about four points off the low.
This session was unique for the last several weeks in that the bulls didn’t make a sustained ramp higher at the close. Closing a Friday red has been a tough chore for the bears for the last twelve Fridays so this feels like a significant accomplishment.
Looking at the Market Leaders board we find every market leader down but the chip makers (SOX). The SOX is on our Leaders board for a good reason: The SOX can often give a good clue as to strength and weaknesses within the market. Bears should find it a bit troubling to find the SOX up on a down day such as Friday.
A most interesting final session of the week began with about a five point gap lower. After working a bit lower for the first quarter hour the SPX tried to find a bottom and bounce about five points to put the high of the day on the chart at 9:58. Bulls attempted a brief come back about 15 minutes later before leaving for the weekend. Bears took the tape down sharply to put the low of the day on the chart at 1:00 pm. The rest of the session was choppy consolidation with the index closing about four points off the low.
This session was unique for the last several weeks in that the bulls didn’t make a sustained ramp higher at the close. Closing a Friday red has been a tough chore for the bears for the last twelve Fridays so this feels like a significant accomplishment.
Looking at the Market Leaders board we find every market leader down but the chip makers (SOX). The SOX is on our Leaders board for a good reason: The SOX can often give a good clue as to strength and weaknesses within the market. Bears should find it a bit troubling to find the SOX up on a down day such as Friday.
The SPX gained 26.64 points during the week. The four week RSI of the four indices (SPX, Dow, NASDAQ, and Russell 200) is 64. Pullbacks often occur as this RSI reaches 80 and bounces near 20.
For the SPX, there were 77 components advancing and 410 declining. Total tick for the week was -89,000. The number of components with their 5 DMA above their 20 DMA decreased during the week from a ratio of 3.6 to one to 2.72 to one.
On the NYSE, the advance/decline line decreased during the week more than 3700 and the 10 DMA of Net Advancing dropped from 468 to 77.
This was the first Friday to lose more than a point in three months. The weekly chart painted an inside week; the first inside week since the early July short-term bottom. Inside weeks often, but certainly not always, mark pivots on the chart.
Volume on the week was significantly lower than the volume on last week’s surge. This might suggest a lack of panic this week. Yet -1000 ticks outnumbered +1000 ticks by a wide margin, 61 negative to 5 positive.
For the SPX, there were 77 components advancing and 410 declining. Total tick for the week was -89,000. The number of components with their 5 DMA above their 20 DMA decreased during the week from a ratio of 3.6 to one to 2.72 to one.
On the NYSE, the advance/decline line decreased during the week more than 3700 and the 10 DMA of Net Advancing dropped from 468 to 77.
This was the first Friday to lose more than a point in three months. The weekly chart painted an inside week; the first inside week since the early July short-term bottom. Inside weeks often, but certainly not always, mark pivots on the chart.
Volume on the week was significantly lower than the volume on last week’s surge. This might suggest a lack of panic this week. Yet -1000 ticks outnumbered +1000 ticks by a wide margin, 61 negative to 5 positive.
For the SPX Index there were 35 Advancers/453 Decliners. On the NYSE 3,111 issues were traded with 521 advancing issues and 2,509 retreating issues, a ratio of 4.82 to one declining. There were 49 new highs and 18 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 262 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 16 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 77.
Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 8.64 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.79 and the final tick was -628. The NYSE Composite Index lost -1.29% today while the SPX lost -1.19%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -3.41% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 6 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 7 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 91.7% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 104.8% of the last 10 day average and 97.2% of the previous day’s volume.
Breadth was harshly negative and declining volume was even more so. The broad NYSE Composite Index underperformed the SPX. A large negative final tick and the ten day average of Net Advancing plummeted.
But what gets our attention is the New Highs. Friday had the lowest number of New Highs since July 2nd. Consider this a moment: We are about 20 points off the 52 week high and the New Highs have fallen to levels last seen when we were 200 points off the highs. This seems significant.
Total tick for the day was -220,000 and the average tick for the day was -143. There were 49 ticks greater than 600 and 224 ticks more extreme than -600. There was one tick greater than 1000 and 19 ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional distribution.
While this pullback is only a few days old, the greater than 1000 ticks have favored the bears each of the last five weeks. It certainly appears that institutions have been taking advantage of this rally to sell. We did not see this pattern within the ticks prior to the late April sell-off.
The intraday volume pattern clearly shows the surge of volume with each wave of selling Friday but overall volume was not extraordinary.
Within the nightly breadth indicators we can see a clear bearish presence. The McClellan Oscillator has exploded to almost -200, a level last seen on August 27th. It rarely goes much lower without a market bounce occurring.
Holding My positions, Silver below 25 and I'm out wait for lower prices, Hold my BGZ. Expecting a short lived bounce.
Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 8.64 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.79 and the final tick was -628. The NYSE Composite Index lost -1.29% today while the SPX lost -1.19%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -3.41% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 6 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 7 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 91.7% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 104.8% of the last 10 day average and 97.2% of the previous day’s volume.
Breadth was harshly negative and declining volume was even more so. The broad NYSE Composite Index underperformed the SPX. A large negative final tick and the ten day average of Net Advancing plummeted.
But what gets our attention is the New Highs. Friday had the lowest number of New Highs since July 2nd. Consider this a moment: We are about 20 points off the 52 week high and the New Highs have fallen to levels last seen when we were 200 points off the highs. This seems significant.
Total tick for the day was -220,000 and the average tick for the day was -143. There were 49 ticks greater than 600 and 224 ticks more extreme than -600. There was one tick greater than 1000 and 19 ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional distribution.
While this pullback is only a few days old, the greater than 1000 ticks have favored the bears each of the last five weeks. It certainly appears that institutions have been taking advantage of this rally to sell. We did not see this pattern within the ticks prior to the late April sell-off.
The intraday volume pattern clearly shows the surge of volume with each wave of selling Friday but overall volume was not extraordinary.
Within the nightly breadth indicators we can see a clear bearish presence. The McClellan Oscillator has exploded to almost -200, a level last seen on August 27th. It rarely goes much lower without a market bounce occurring.
Holding My positions, Silver below 25 and I'm out wait for lower prices, Hold my BGZ. Expecting a short lived bounce.
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