S&P Recap and A Look Inside the Markets

Good Morning, S&P Futures are up 8 points this morning, commodities are up, oil up $1.5and it seems the situation at Fukushima Plant is improving and the situation Libya is getting worse, so Japan trumps Libya.
Yesterday With helicopters, water cannons, and fire trucks dousing the Dai-Ichi reactors with water overnight, the situation in Japan appeared to be less severe and the Nikkei finished well off its lows. European markets and U.S. futures were moving up strongly as the session open approached.

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance for the week ending 3/12 fell by 16,000 to 385,000. This was in line with the consensus estimate for 385,000 and last week’s total of 401,000. Continuing Claims for the week ending 3/5 came in at 3.706M vs. 3.750M and last week’s 3.786M. The Consumer Price Index for February rose by +0.5%, which was above the consensus for +0.4% and also January’s reading of +0.4%. When you take out food and energy, the so-called Core CPI came in with a gain of +0.2%, which was a tenth above expectations but in line with January’s +0.1%.



The session began with a large gap higher. Trade was choppy during the morning, putting the high of the day on the chart just before the first hour ended. The hour between 1:00 pm and 2:00 pm provided some excitement as the SPX sold off nine points but shortly after that the index began climbing back higher with a final hour rally while the last ten minutes sold off a bit to close at about 60% of the intraday range.

For the SPX Index there were 405 components advancing and 76 components declining. On the NYSE 3,136 issues were traded with 2,232 advancing issues and 819 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.73 to one advancing. There were 30 new highs and 28 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 82 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 39 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -527. The Net Advancing data indicates a bearish trend.

Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 4.21 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.61 and the final tick was 305. The five day average of TRIN is 1.33 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.35. The NYSE Composite Index gained 1.7% today while the SPX gained 1.32%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -1.22% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 6 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 22 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 99.8% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 94.6% of the last 10 day average and 70.1% of the previous day’s volume.

New Highs were weak while New Lows remained relatively strong. The ten day average of Net Advancing remains firmly entrenched in bear territory. On the plus side, the NYSE Composite Index outperformed the SPX and this can often be a bullish sign. Follow-through today is crucial if you are long otherwise this simply looks like an oversold bounce in a downtrend.

Total tick for the day was 85,000 and the average tick for the day was 55. There were 97 ticks greater than 600 and 73 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 3 ticks greater than 1000 and 2 ticks more extreme than -1000.

Volume was light today, especially compared to Wednesday's heavy volume. If you are bullish, you're happy with today's rally but you would have liked to have seen a bit more enthusiasm; the overnight romp was really all we got today. Looking at the Breadth Indicators, they are a bit bearish. The real test for the market is coming today. Follow-through on today's rally is required and it's options expiration as well (Quadruple Witching).

Sectors stronger than the SPX for Thursday:
- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +45%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +172%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +21%.

Sectors weaker than the SPX for Thursday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -2%.
- Technology -- Underperformed the SPX by -30%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -85%.
- Utilities -- Underperformed the SPX by -118%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -17%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Underperformed the SPX by -85%.