Friday, March 18, 2011

Not Believing this Rally! S&P500 and QE3

I have to use SPY as a proxy for SPX due to software problem, as you can see by the chart that it looks like we have made a major top multiple attempts to get up to old high and earthquake, middle east, Egypt or not we had the down move start prior to the news. Tough I don't think we are entering any kind of move like fall of 08 we will continue to go down until we hear talk about QE3, "You and Can Bank On It". 


Look at my post on Liquidity and S&P and I dont have the numbers to support it now but the FED's balance sheet will be telling. And there is talk QE will end after this round as economy is on "firmer footing", Philly Fed blowout number has people talking about growth, and then there is the disinformation, artificial claims numbers, artificial job growth numbers etc. So we could drop a to about the 150dma or slightly below right where QE2 began. But before all that I think we get to the 50dma, and thats when I will put on a big short, that move show hammer us down to the 150, thats when I cover. At that time you will hear about QE3, and if you don't the market will be in free fall. I have been saying all along, this is a house built on defective foundation, unless they keep patching things up its going to collapse. They should have let it breakdown and then have rebuilt it from the bottom up. I know thats hard, everyone including me would be badly hurt but thats the right thing to do, not the easy thing.


But I am neither an economist or policy maker nor do I wish or claim to be. I will just play their game with the cards and hopefully without the blinders they want us all to wear.



No comments:

Post a Comment