Thursday, May 26, 2011

USD and Related Issues

Immeadiate term strength in dollar running out of steam as it ran in to resistance around 76.25. Yesterday it printed a gravestone doji and is now looking as if it wants to test the 50dma. Right now the DXY is down .5% this am.

Gold is running to to head winds at 1525 its major primary resistance, if it clears that it will make it 1545.  Strong immediate and longterm up trend continues. News out of china putting money into Portugal of all places, don't know what to make of that yet. Thats is helping euro and stocks.

As I have mentioned in the past the HUI leads the metals and its ran right into big time resistance at the 150, and failed to finish at the high of the day. Its going to take a few days to clear that so after some back and fill should move back above the 150.

Carry trade back on, USD down commodities up, looking for the CCI to break this short-term channel and test the 50, probably at the same time the USD index tests the 50, this is no coincidence!

Crude looks similar to CCI

If copper can get going above the 150would be bullish for all metals, i expect there to be an approach to the 150 but no break, depends how the dollar acts at its 50dma.

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