"Economic or market trend associated with some characteristic or phenomenon which is not cyclical or seasonal but exists over a relatively long period".
Monday, January 10, 2011
Friday's Recap: A look inside the market
The Labor Department reported that Nonfarm Payrolls, rose in the month of December by 103K. This was below the consensus estimates for an increase of 172K and well below the "whisper numbers" for something on the order of +190K. The private sector showed gains of 113K jobs, which was also well below the estimates for 187K. However, the nation’s Unemployment Rate dipped to 9.4%, well below the expectations for a reading of 9.7% and November’s level of 9.8%. October & November payrolls were revised higher by +70K while the Private Payroll numbers were revised higher by +62K. Foreign markets were mixed with many hovering near breakeven.
The session began with a small gap higher and quickly moved upward three points to put the high of the day on the chart just six minutes after the open. Several waves of selling hit the tape taking the index down fourteen points but just before 1pm dip buyers jumped into the fray and the afternoon belonged entirely to the bulls. Buyers relentlessly ran the tape higher all afternoon pumping the index upward more than ten points off the lows.
The high of the day was still in the opening hour, a bearish characteristic, and the index closed down for the day. But the afternoon did not feel bearish in any fashion as the bulls seemed to recover with ease from the morning sell off.
The SPX gained 13.86 points during the week. The range for the week was 20.55 points, 1.63%. The four week RSI of the four indices (SPX, Dow, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000) is 86. Pullbacks often occur as this RSI reaches 80 and bounces near 20.
Total tick for the week was 244,000. On the NYSE, the advance/decline line increased during the week by 256 and the 10 day average of Net Advancing decreased from 346 to 163.
This was another odd week. Three days were down, there were almost four times as many negative 1000 ticks as positive 1000 ticks, yet here we are up almost 14 points. There is clearly market manipulation at hand because at least twice this week when the market was threatening to breakdown someone came into the futures market and started buy blocks of ES contracts at 9999 contracts a block. Whoever it is has a lot more money to lay out than you or me (Guess who?)and they were willing to put that money at risk at very vulnerable times. But it was effective each time because it immediately turned the markets higher.
For the SPX Index there were 201 components advancing and 276 components declining. On the NYSE 3,146 issues were traded with 1,334 advancing issues and 1,706 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.28 to one declining. There were 141 new highs and 9 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 177 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 7 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 163.
Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 1.48 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.16 and the final tick was 674. The five day average of TRIN is .9 and the ten day average of TRIN is .97. The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.26% today while the SPX lost -0.18%.
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 14.% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 6 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 19 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 108.5% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 168.7% of the last 10 day average and 102.5% of the previous day’s volume.
The market breadth clearly suggests that Friday should have been down close to 1% yet the SPX didn't even manage one fifth of that. There isn't much new to be said; it's all been said.
Total tick for the day was -42,000 and the average tick for the day was -27. There were 71 ticks greater than 600 and 85 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 1 ticks greater than 1000 and 11 ticks more extreme than -1000.
Intra-day volume clearly spiked on the down moves and diminished on the up moves. Looking at the Nightly Breadth indicators show a bearish trend. But Price continues to creep higher.
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