Thursday, November 10, 2011

"Rolla Coastah"

The selling yesterday maybe an over exaggeration due to the news of the italian prime minister stepping down. This really should have come as no surprise as greece is prime minister had recently resigned why would this shock the markets. Everyone knows the PIIGS are in trouble and on the verge of default. So what is all the selling about? I think the point is that people are finally starting to realize that the problem is so massive europe may not be able to find or may not print enough money,  all this beating around the bush about how bad things really are, is leading to investor uncertainty.

As I have written about before, they should just forgive all the derivative debt that everyone on their balance sheets, come clean if you will and start over! But they will never do that they will just print more money will ultimately lead to hyperinflation. Many economists argue that we already have a lot of inflation, look at gold, oil, healthcare, education, all have risen dramatically with respect to household income.

O to the futures and charts, after the 46 point drubbing the SPX took yesterday ,the futures are up 16.4, crude oil is up a 1.23 to 97.82 and if anybody is telling you that we are headed for a deflationary environment they must be insane, just take a look at the oil price.Silver is down 30 cents and gold is down 18.30

Looking at the S&P 500 chart it shows that we are at critical support levels 1229 where the recent break out started, and then stalled at the 200 day moving average (red line)



The advance decline line has also stopped at the top end of its range in the continuation sideways pattern. A break out above 10,600 would be extremely bullish. The mcclellan oscillator is neutral.

Now looking at the precious metal charts using SLV for example only we see the chart shows that had a false break out which stalled at the 50 day moving average and we are the right now at support levels. A break through the lower point will take us down to 31.20. The ugly looking bull flag is still intact.


Now lets look at gold, gold is still in a powerful secular bull move well above its rising 150dma and the short-term trend is still bullish as it is still above it's rising trendline support is a 170, again I'm using GLD for demonstration only.



Looking at the dollar index: chart of the dollar index seems to be breaking upwards as it sounds support at the 150 day moving average how to big days up printed a bull flag this break out should end at 79.20 or less. While there in eurozone disturbance the dollar will catch a bid and the PM's will be suppressed. I am still holding my targets from earlier this week.

 I continue to question the usefulness of technical analysis in a manipulated markets, but what tools are left for the average investor.Trying to make sense of insanity is INSANITY no?

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