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Fed is getting exactly what they want, a lower base from where to restart the QE, and its not just our government Europe is in the same situation. Yesterday we had more horrible economic news and bad news out of Eurozone as well. The situation in Greece continued to be an issue with Germany saying they want to delay a second bailout of Greece until September. In addition, another weak report in the UK, this one on retail sales, kept concerns about the global economy at the forefront. Global markets were lower across the board and the futures in the U.S. were modestly weak before the open. In the US, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance for the week ending 6/11 fell by 16,000 to 414K. This was below the consensus estimate for 422K and last week's total of 430K. Continuing Claims for the week ending 6/4 came in at 3.675M vs. 3.68M and last week's 3.696M. Housing Starts rose 3.5% in May to an annualized rate of 560K. This was above the consensus for 544K. Building Permits for May rose 8.7% to 612K. This was also above the consensus of 556K and last month's reading of 563K. At 10:00 am the Philadelphia Fed numbers came in as the largest decline in history and the market was rattled momentarily. |
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| Thursday's session opened without a significant gap. The trend was moving higher until the Philly Fed report at 10:00 am sent the market into a brief tailspin. But within moments the SPX had recovered eight points and was moving along very nicely until shortly after 1:00 pm when the bottom fell out and the index ran off almost fifteen points to test the 200 DMA. But the SPX bounced sharply off the moving average and regained about ten points in the final hour to close at about 60% of the intraday range. It seemed to be a very bullish reversal. |
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| Thursday’s volume was above the ten day average but below Wednesday's volume. There were four intraday surges of volume and three of them were associated with index up moves. The Breadth Indicators look much less bearish after Thursdays session. The McClellan Oscillator remains very oversold and the ten day average is also oversold. MSI could go even lower, so still some confusion even though I liked the price action yesterday. |
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| Dollar is right up against resistance and commodities are barely hanging on. |
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| Volatility Squeeze, Waiting for the pop (up, not down pls) |
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| Nice Penant in a strong uptrend, on the hourly charts it looks like a rolling top, so depending on your time frame (proceed accordingly) |
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| Double Top? |
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