Thursday, April 07, 2011

Uranium Miners

Even before the earthquake in Japan, it looked as if uranium prices in a correction mode, Ux mining stocks were following as they usually do (Please note: There is no formal exchange (Like COMEX) for Uranium trading). The Fukushima disaster just intensified and magnified the sell-off. We saw spot prices crater to a low of $49/lb. on March 16 before recovering to $60/lb. on March 21. The political and public resistance to nuclear energy in the short and long term is anybody's guess at this point.

Globally, this was the third nuclear plant incident in more than 30 years. The first was Three Mile Island. While nothing of real consequence happened, it did change the perception of nuclear safety. The second incident was Chernobyl where the reactor melted down, resulting in serious environmental and health impacts. That reactor was an obsolete and inadequate design with no containment vessel and was never used in the West. Although Japan's Fukushima plant was using some older technology and we still don't know what the full damage will be, it will not be anything near the Chernobyl disaster.

When this disaster happened recently we saw the uranium stocks sell off and Nat Gas, Solar and Wind stocks fly upwards, oil stocks have been on fire. We know the economy can't handle 150 dollar barrel oil, and many are predicting another recession if that were the case, consumers are already getting clobbered by inflation, whether the government admits it or not.

Solar cannot provide base-load electricity because of night and wind cannot because it does not blow constantly at the same velocity 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 365 days a year. We don't have the natural gas transportation, storage and filling infrastructure to convert electrical plants or vehicles quickly. Then there is politics, we also have the Eco-fascists who preach "clean and green," but then launch lawsuits to stop solar plants in the Mojave Desert and offshore wind farms on the East Coast. What do the NIMBY's (not in my backyard) want? Where will we get the energy to heat our homes, etc?

Coal has been the big beneficiary of this disaster: with supply disruptions causing rapid rises in price, but it is our dirtiest form of energy and a major pollutant worldwide.

So where do we go from here. Volatility will be the name of the game in this space for quite sometime. But the fundamentals are in support of this group even if there are no more new plants to some on line and that is highly unlikely. People will forget as they always do!.

Did did you know that even if all under-construction and planned nuclear facilities are suspended, not enough uranium is being mined currently to supply current demand.

Currently there is a shortage of uranium. We haven't mined enough uranium for 25 years and our current mine supply deficit is 30% of total yearly demand. What the world has been relying on for supply is using uranium from old Russian warheads and sovereign uranium stores that ware said to run out by 2013.

In my opinion, we desperately need a viable domestic uranium industry as we strive to reach energy independence in the U.S. I trust that the American people and its politicians and policymakers will continue to ensure that all forms of energy, including nuclear power, play a part in this mix.

There are a number to play this SECULAR BULL, right now sector is beaten down (Volatile), and ripe for the picking but you have to have price discipline set stops, the small stocks are like bottle rockets, so this group is not for the faint of heart.
ETF: URA, NLR

Big Kahuna: CCJ 

Little Guys: URZ, UEC, DNN

As always do your own home work and pick good entry points.

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