Friday, April 15, 2011

S&P 500 Recap


Good morning. S&P futures are down slightly today. Well, it seems that I was wrong again with my short at the open AGAIN! Though I did't get stopped out yet I probably will today. 
Yesterday's session started with a big downward gap and further downside pressure over the next few minutes then found support between 1300 and 1305. The rest of the session we saw basically a five waves of buying with small pullbacks, with the largest pullback being about four points. There was some mild selling at the close on the SPX while the Russell 2000 was rising; this is usually a bullish for the following session. The SPX closed in the top 15% of the intraday range and this is often bullish for the next day as well.

Market Leaders, Metals (Silver & Gold had huge moves) Materials and energy outperformed, while Technology and the Financials (XLF) were both down. The Financials were down almost 1% while the Russell 2000 small caps were the U.S. leading gainer. Yesterdays volume was just slightly more than Wednesday's. Looking at the intraday pattern we can see a large spike of volume with the late morning decline and volume falling off during the afternoon rally. Today's rally was not being chased by traders. Checking the Breadth Indicators, things are a bit more mixed this evening. The McClellan Oscillator is moving back from oversold while the Summation Index continues to move lower. I'm thinking that the 1,000 area for the Summation Index is still obtainable but a bounce seems likely first.

New Highs were weak as is this weak rally from oversold condition and tomorrow needs to show some strength (Breadth & Volume).

38.8% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 30.2% are above their 10 day average, 48.4% are above their 20 day moving average, 54% are above their 50 day moving average, and 83.8% are above their 200 day moving average.

The SPX 20 DMA crossed above the 50 DMA and this is an intermediate term bullish crossover. But there were four bearish crosses as the Russell Technology Index 5 DMA crossed below the 20 DMA, the Russell 2000 5 DMA crossed below the 20 DMA, the XLF 5 DMA crossed below the 20 DMA, and the SOX 5 DMA crossed below the 20 DMA.


I'm still short, probably get taken out today. 

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