Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Something Isn't Right With This Rally

Good Morning. Wanna hear a joke, really its very funny from this mornings headlines, "Facing pressure to curb rising gas prices, President Barack Obama is calling for the U.S. to reduce its oil imports by one-third over the next decade, a lofty goal likely to run into significant obstacles". Wow, Really were going to be at 150 to 200/dollar oil by the end of this year! S&P 500 futures are 6.7 points this morning, Cephalon caught a bid from a Canadian drug maker, DuPont is making a buy as well. All is giddy on Wall Street. The Middle east is a huge mess, and things in Japan don't look any better either. 
S&P   INTRA-DAY 60min chart (Click to enlarge)
Yesterday's session began without a significant gap and then proceeded to sell off five points. But the low of the day was on the chart just sixteen minutes into the session and bulls took over and kicked the crap out of the bears. Pullbacks were insignificant as the buyers bought the dip and ran the tape ever higher putting on more than thirteen points and closing the SPX at the highs of the day.

For the SPX Index there were 397 components advancing and 83 components declining. On the NYSE 3,135 issues were traded with 2,107 advancing issues and 938 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.25 to one advancing. There were 117 new highs and 12 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 133 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 13 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 704. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.

Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 2.15 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.22 and the final tick was 812. The five day average of TRIN is 1.04 and the ten day average of TRIN is 1.4. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.59% today while the SPX gained 0.70%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -24.03% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 4 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 20 sessions ended on a positive tick, 7 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 77.4% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 76.5% of the last 10 day average and 106% of the previous day’s volume.

Advancing volume remains unenthusiastic, but price is back testing the 1320 level again. We'll see if this time that door get knocked down, we have been here a three times already and the futures are up 7 so we'll go right through . But the TRIN clearly shows that something isn’t right within the market; the TRIN should be below one in a rising market.

Total tick for the day was 185,000 and the average tick for the day was 119. There were 60 ticks greater than 600 and 5 ticks more extreme than -600. There were 1 ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.

Today's volume was again light but a bit heavier than Monday. There is really no discernable intraday pattern to the volume today as it held pretty steady all day. Looking at the Breadth Indicators, it's clearly bullish across the board.

75.2% of the SPX are above their five day moving average, 86.2% are above their 10 day average, 72.8% are above their 20 day moving average, 63% are above their 50 day moving average, and 85.2% are above their 200 day moving average.

S&P DAILY (click to enlarge)


- Basic Materials -- Outperformed the SPX by +32%.
- Energy -- Outperformed the SPX by +34%.
- Industrials -- Outperformed the SPX by +17%.
- Technology -- Outperformed the SPX by +19%.
- Utilities -- Outperformed the SPX by +22%.
- Consumer Discretionary -- Outperformed the SPX by +21%.

Sectors weaker than the SPX for Tuesday:
- Financials -- Underperformed the SPX by -43%.
- Consumer Staples -- Underperformed the SPX by -20%.
- Health Care -- Underperformed the SPX by -12%.

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