Thursday, January 06, 2011

Wednesday Recap: A Look Inside the market

This is a head scratcher! Sell-off what sell off, over bought who cares, technicals don't matter right now
so I surrender, not going to try and predict whats happening here.




Stock futures were following European markets lower in response to a poor auction in Portugal and continued strength in the dollar. However, things picked up a bit in response to the report from ADP. ADP reported that the private sector job market expanded again during the month of December. The report shows that private sector jobs rose by 297K jobs during the month, which was well above the consensus expectations for a gain of about 107K. November’s report was revised lower to a gain of 92,000 jobs, up from the initial report of +93K.

The session began with a modest two point gap lower and quickly moved three more points downward to put the low of the day on the chart just two minutes after the open. The dip buyers quickly arrived to begin to run the tape higher; from noon through 3pm the index traded sideways within a two point range as momentum died and sellers were already absent. The closing hour briefly broke above that two point range by a quarter point but even that was a brief excursion putting the high of the session on the chart at 3:14.

For the SPX Index there were 313 components advancing and 169 components declining. On the NYSE 3,130 issues were traded with 1,821 advancing issues and 1,231 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.48 to one advancing. There were 176 new highs and 9 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 179 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 6 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 321. The Net Advancing data indicates a bullish trend.
 
Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 2.37 to one. The closing TRIN was 0.62 and the final tick was 879. The five day average of TRIN is .86 and the ten day average of TRIN is .98. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.22% today while the SPX gained 0.5%.
 
For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was 10.4% above the average. Of the last 15 sessions 5 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 18 sessions ended on a positive tick, 5 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 104.2% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 178.9% of the last 10 day average and 105% of the previous day’s volume.
 
Breadth was reasonably strong today. But New Highs continue to be rather weak for a time when the indices are continuously putting up 52 week highs. Yet it is what it is, for now the bulls are having their way. There are two or three of these extended no-pullbacks-allowed periods every decade and this is one.
 
Total tick for the day was 143,000 and the average tick for the day was 92. There were 60 ticks greater than 600 and 1 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.
 
The Nightly Breadth Indicators have a bullish look to them tonight but we can't escape the fact that market breadth continues to not be as strong as it should be at 52 week highs. For now, this means little. But if and when a pullback should begin, the weakness in the market breadth could come to the front and make any pullback sharp and quick, probably down to 1220, its going to take some sort of event.

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