Wednesday Recap: A Look Inside the market

The third quarter GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the quarter. This was below the consensus expectations for a growth rate of 2.8% but above the first revision of 2.5%. (Recall that the final Q2 rate was +1.7% and Q1 was +3.7%). Looking at the all-important consumer activity, the Personal Consumption component of the report came in slightly below expectations with a gain of 2.4% vs. the consensus for 2.5% and the first revision’s +2.8%. (Last quarter was 2.2%.) Stock futures in the U.S. pointed to a flat open.


The sluggish pre-holiday session opened without a gap and began the habitual relentless grind slowly higher. After several hours of slow creep the high of the day was put on the chart at 12:32 and the afternoon consisted of a three point decline before a mild bounce into the close. But everything was mild on this day as this was a typical pre-holiday session with the smallest trading range in nine months. The banks really rallied on Wed  on solid volume but the overall volume was very low but seasonal.

For the SPX Index there were 273 Advancers/168 Decliners. On the NYSE 3,160 issues were traded with 1,876 advancing issues and 1,182 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.59 to one advancing. There were 215 new highs and 15 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 194 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 24 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 303.


Advancing volume was higher at a ratio of 1.48 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.07 and the final tick was 88. The five day average of TRIN is .76 and the ten day average of TRIN is .82. The NYSE Composite Index gained 0.32% today while the SPX gained 0.34%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -25.03% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 5 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 19 sessions ended on a positive tick, 7 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 28.1% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 82.1% of the last 10 day average and 100.5% of the previous day’s volume.
 
Total tick for the day was 142,000 and the average tick for the day was 92. There were 27 ticks greater than 600 and 0 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000.


I don't expect my much for the rest of the year. I suspect the dollar index will rise to 81.50 and then continue back down. The precious metals will suffer at the hands of the dollar strength. No changes in long-term view.