Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Monday Market Recap: A Look Ahead


$DXY is below the 200 wk ma and that is a significant reversal from what we had seen recently, this will fuel the fire in equities and we are seeing that with morning futures up nicely. Metals and Miners also benefiting! The SPX looked like was putting in a triple top until I woke up this morning to find the futures up and over that 1230 level, market needs volume and a hold above the April highs. The QQQQ's are in a cup and handle pattern and this leads me to think that there is a lot of room to upside and we are not going to top here. SPX is just starting to build the same pattern. Its been lagging due to the Financials, so I'll be watching that group. 

The week began with a little downbeat mood as Ben Bernanke wasn't exactly upbeat about the economy in his "60 Minutes" interview. In addition, debt spreads are widening once again in peripheral Europe. There was talk again this morning about countries such as Ireland and Germany abandoning the Euro in the future. The economic calendar had no data scheduled for release today and things are quite slow for much of the week.

The Monday session opened with about a two point gap downward. The low of the day was quickly on the chart at 9:54 am and a rally attempt was tried but went nowhere. The lows were tested just before noon and bulls once again took control of the tape pushing the index to the high of the day at 3:43 pm. The final quarter hour saw a two and half point "sell off" but that minor move took the index below the midpoint of the intraday range because the range was so small.

Looking at the Markets Leaders we find a mixed board that is mostly down, with the exception of metals and miners the Russell 2000 (small caps) finished a bit higher. 


For the SPX Index there were 174 Advancers/272 Decliners. On the NYSE 3,119 issues were traded with 1,501 advancing issues and 1,509 retreating issues, a ratio of 1.01 to one declining. There were 260 new highs and 8 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 158 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 13 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is 157.

Declining volume was higher at a ratio of 1.1 to one. The closing TRIN was 1.09 and the final tick was 298. The NYSE Composite Index lost -0.14% today while the SPX lost -0.13%.

For the NYSE, relative to the previous 30 session average, volume was -21.89% below the average. Of the last 15 sessions 6 sessions ended with volume greater than the previous rolling 30 day average volume. Of the last 30 sessions, 20 sessions ended on a positive tick, 6 of last 10. For the SPX, the day's volume was 76.8% of the average daily volume for the last year. Volume was 87.8% of the last 10 day average and 93.7% of the previous day’s volume.

Today’s action was exceedingly mild (unless you are in the precious metals arena) and appears mostly neutral. But the ten day average of Net Advancing continues to creep lower.

Total tick for the day was 100,000 and the average tick for the day was 65. There were 27 ticks greater than 600 and 12 ticks more extreme than -600. There were no ticks greater than 1000 and no ticks more extreme than -1000. The tick action suggests institutional accumulation.

The tick action requires a comment. The last four sessions have seen some of the "softest" tick action in recent memory. Extreme ticks have virtually disappeared; we have gone four days without a tick more extreme than 1000.

Intraday volume today was somewhat heavy at the open, then fell off dramatically. The only bump in volume of any minor significance came during the test of the lows just before lunch hour. Looking at the breadth indicators, things are more mixed than they have been the last couple of days. The 10 DMA of the McClellan Oscillator has yet to move into positive territory and the Cumulative Volume Index isn't acting particularly bullish.

Everything is up this morning, Metals, Industrials, Materials, Financials doing well, long bond is getting hit as is nat gas (what else is new). 

Have a great day.






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