Too Early

I was right and then I was wrong

I warned about the melt down but I was too early


Off by one week!

Greek Scare

Nothing But a  Bluff

Hang on or add longs buy more more QE to follow

European debt meeting

Futures are screaming higher, S&P's are up 28 points on top of a 12 point gain on reversal yesterday. Lets see if the big boys fade this open. We have GDP at 830am along with other reports.

If you havent already heard the outcome of the meeting here is a link

“There was no way that this agreement was ever going to include everything that dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s, but what they did do is show a sense of unity and determination in recognizing what needed to be done,” said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin in London.

“I don’t think they [euro-zone leaders] are floundering any more,” he said. ”There was discord, conflict and tension [before]. All of that energy now seems to be far more productively focused on these three or four points they have agreed.”

Equity markets in Asia and Europe soared Thursday on news of the deal. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index XX:SXXP +3.48% rose 3%, while France’s CAC-40 indexFR:PX1 +5.51% rallied 4.8%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-rally-after-eu-debt-deal-2011-10-27?dist=beforebell

When to buy back

This morning we had a gap up which was rejected swiftly at the upper trendline and I think we are headed to the lower end of the range. If the news out europe on the positive side is baked into this current move up, but bad news is not and we could get a freefall until just before the G20. This is a scary environment to be trading to say the least,

PM Update

What in the world is going on? Gold up almost 3% and Silver up 5% what happened to the deflation scenario? Right now big bets are being made by the commercial banks that a lot of printing is going to take place, I refer you to the COT reports previously posted. Technically both PM's are starting to look healthier, gold looks a lot better than Silver.

 Gold is above the 150 and 200dma, MACD is crossing over and this morning gold is up 20 bucks so it should break above the resistance trendline, next hurdle will be getting over the 50dma and that should be no problem if we get a significant bailout from Europe.

 The Silver daily chart is a mess, the hourly looks a lot better, yesterday it broke above its resistance line and will most likely fill that gap this week. Again anyone who has been long Silver right now has been extremly disappointed since May first. We all know the fundamentals (debt, inflation etc) but we have had to face the big banks and the margin hikes etc, we all know 16:1 gold to Silver ratio and based on that Silver should be over a hundred. Right now the sentiment in Silver is so poor that any good news regarding QE will cause it to gap up quickly, we have large specs who are usually wrong way too short as are the small specs and the Commercials are the least short they have ever been this sets up for a big move in Silver. So even if this chart looks ugly, we have a nice set up in the coming days or weeks.

Finally, it looks like the EUR is signalling the euro-zone is safe for now, euro looks like its going to breakout and the dollar chart looks weak, will probably be 74.90 by Christmas. I think this recent stock market rally was based on optimism the Fed will join in with European central banks and they will ease together and the market has gotten ahead of itself, the S&P futures are up 7 points right now, but we are overbought (Mc O at highest point in chart) and market needs a little break. We should get a pull back to the 50dma, that would be healthy.