S&P 500 Recap : final S&P daily recap

Good morning, I am going to stop the daily recap of the S&P because this has been an exercise in futility for me. I give up. As I have been saying for months now the technicals do not matter for now. One day they will again. 

For now, there is nothing of value in reviewing and writing in-actionable material.

S&P futures are down 9 points so far this morning as People's Bank of China announced that the deposit reserve ratio for most banks would be raised -- the fourth reserve increase this year. Another anti-inflation move by China. 

The Friday options expiration session began without a significant gap but quickly moved higher a couple of points before giving it back and moving into negative ground. Then SPX quickly bounced almost seven points in less than fifteen minutes but this was a volatile quick moving morning session and the index gave those points back almost as quickly as it had gained them. Then things began to settle down just before 11:00 and the bulls took control. The index worked higher for a couple of hours before putting the high of the day on the chart at 1:00 pm. Afternoon trading was relatively sluggish as the index gave back almost four points but closed at two thirds of the intraday range. But it is worth noting that the Russell 2000 closed at the top of its intraday range and that would appear to be bullish.

S&P lost  0.64% but the internals were awful we should have lost a lot more. So once again the market continues to be quite resilient, undoubtedly buoyed by the Fed free money, nausea setting in. Not much more to report. Breadth and volume were weak and I expect more of the same. Price is now above the 50dma, who cares!

S&P: 373 components advancing and 102 components declining. NYSE: 3,152 issues were traded with 2,075 advancing issues and 968 retreating issues, a ratio of 2.14 to one advancing. There were 108 new highs and 14 new lows. The five day moving average of New Highs is 73 while the five day moving average of New Lows is 18 and the ten day moving average of Net Advancing is -194.

65.2% of the S&P issues are above their five day moving average, 44.6% are above their 10 day average, 53.2% are above their 20 day moving average, 60% are above their 50 day moving average, and 84.6% are above their 200 day moving average.

Consumer Staples, Basic materials, and Energy  were stand outs on Friday. 

Silver Raid Imminent

Only for those who are trading paper Silver (long AGQ, 50%): Silver hit a high of 43.4 in the overnight session and has since sold off, right on cue. 


 I don't have any inside information or have any contacts at the comex (you know who I am talking about) but what I do know is TA and it tells me we are very overbought. 

And calling a top is the hardest thing to do, and tops develop over time and prices can keep climbing for months after you think they should have topped technically or what have you and no one ever plays the bull market in anything, perfectly. You do the best you can.

 What I see technically is that after each pullback the speed and angle of upward trajectory is becoming acute (sharp/steep), the weekly stochastics are very over bought (so what) that makes me worry. Anecdotally, Silver was on Yahoo finance front page last week (sign post) and a lot of people I know are getting giddy and asking questions about Silver (not Gold). So is the Silver bull over, absolutely not! 

But nothing goes straight up and as I wrote last week, the raids will come Monday to Wednesday morning, its been a trend. They get a whole mess of free paper (money), then make a plan on weekends; so be careful early in the week. I have explained how I survive the raids. Last week I got lucky and Bought ZSL and that protected my profits and I had been taking small amounts off the table on every ballistic move up, and I re-load on the way down. It has been perfectly played but pretty damn close so far.

Please note: this does not apply to any PM holders. If you have the metal just hold on to the ride of your life. Buy on any dip. 

This week: Target 45

Where to buy on the way down: 42.25, 41.5, and 40.5 (40.5 would be a healthy correction to stage a move to 50)

Looking to be fully long at 250, first pullback should take us to 270. 

Metals Update

On Friday at the Comex closing time Gold price settled at $1485.30 for a gain of $13.60.  It continued its rise in the Globex gaining another dollar.

Silver finished the comex session at $42.57 gaining  57 cents, and then in the Globex, screamed higher through the 43 dollar level where it closed at $43.05. 

The JPMorgue was hammered all day by the PM longs. The total gold OI (open interest) added a remarkable 16,309 positions to its open interest rising to 528,213 from Thursday's level of 511,904. The June open interest rose to 356,182 from 348,804 (huge overall amount). The estimated volume at the gold comex was 168,704 which was again to say the least, huge.

The total silver comex open interest rose to 148,652 from Thursday's level of 145,065 scaring the living daylights out of the Banksters. They have tried countless times to shake longs loose for their silver but have failed each time.

The Banksters have another meeting scheduled for this weekend according to Harvey's post, we saw raids on Monday and Tuesday of last week and I expect more of the same starting overnight. Trade the paper hold the metal tight!

Secular Trends Positions Review

Took some more off the table on Friday, don't want to be too greedy. Silver is due for a 10% correction who knows when Blythe and the "coven" will attack next. AGQ's will correct more than 20% if and when that happens. I had written that if Silver holds 42 then we'll see 45 before we ever see 40 again, so the next stop is 45 and then 42.5-43 will be support as we push towards 50 by mid-May. Then the seasonal factors set in and after a correction we should go sideways until third week of August.

Got Stopped out of HAL last week for a 8% loss. 

Core holding in STP (seculartrends portfolio), multi-year move expected.

Added this @ 28.21, seems to be working out so far. Although i expect Crude to go much higher the dynamics are different than food and precious metals. People can fly less, car pool or drive less (cut consumption) or they will just pay more, the rest of the world except the oil rich countries pay more for oil maybe we get used to it here in the US. Wait and see. For now this is just a trade.

Added at 22.10, looks okay so far, 5% stop below purchase selling at 26 range.

Core holding, buy near 150, you may get another chance before June.

Just waiting for this one to explode higher, will add more on next dip below 20dma.  Target is 3.

Core STP holding, for anyone who missed the more to 42, NOW is the chance. We are right at the 150dma, next stop 39, then 42. Don't forget to put in a stop slightly below the new buy.

Core holding up about 5%, reported earnings that disappointed the street sold off a little. Great buying op right at the 150dma, Indian is a Secular bull market. This is a great company do you homework, don't get shaken out. 

Added at 19.25, above the 20dma, STP core holding. resistance at the 150 but it should clear it on the next attempt, not to late to get on board. See my post on Indian Infrastructure and as always do your own homework.